The Plumbing Roll-Up Opportunity by US Region 2026: Where to Build a Consolidation Platform

By Christoph Totter, CT Acquisitions. Last verified July 2026. Next review January 2027.

Executive summary

• Plumbing shares NAICS 238220 with HVAC, so the establishment counts here match the HVAC sibling guide by design. Plumbing is differentiated in the score by its own plumber wage line and its own PE tracker, which is disclosed in full below.
• The plumbing PE tracker geocodes 19 of 23 named platforms to a home region, an 83 percent coverage rate. That is the best geocoding coverage of any vertical CT has mapped, which makes the plumbing PE-saturation signal the most trustworthy in the series.
• New England leads the Opportunity Score at 71.7 on the strength of maximum fragmentation, the highest owner-55-plus share in the country, and zero geocoded PE platform headquarters.
• South Atlantic leads the Scalability Score at 90.3 because it pairs the largest acquirable base with strong population growth and cheaper labor, even though seven PE platforms are already headquartered there.
• West South Central is the rare division that ranks near the top on both lenses, placing second on Opportunity at 68.3 and second on Scalability at 70.5, which makes it the natural hedge play.
• The South Atlantic PE-HQ cluster is real and documented in the tracker: seven plumbing platforms sit in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maryland. New England hosts none.
• Labor cost splits the two leaders sharply. New England plumber wages run 20.35 percent above the national line, a margin headwind. South Atlantic plumber wages run 16.27 percent below it, a margin tailwind.
• The rankings hold up under reasonable re-weighting because fragmentation and succession move together, so New England and West South Central stay near the top of the Opportunity lens under sensible alternative weights.

Methodology and honesty flags, up front

This report ranks the nine US Census divisions two ways. Both scores are CT original composites. Read the flags before the rankings.

The two scores

The Opportunity Score answers a build-from-fragmentation question. It combines five signals with these editorial weights: fragmentation 0.32, succession supply 0.20, inverse PE saturation 0.15, margin quality 0.13, and demand growth 0.20. Each raw signal is min-max normalized from 0 to 100 across the nine divisions, then weighted and summed. Higher means more fragmented, more retiring owners, less existing PE consolidation, more labor-cost headroom, and stronger demand growth.

The Scalability Score answers a build-at-scale question. It weights the acquirable target pool at 0.40, labor economics at 0.20, demand growth at 0.25, and fragmentation at 0.15. It rewards divisions where a buyer can assemble a large platform quickly, even if some consolidation has already started.

The five signals

• Fragmentation: SUSB share of firms that are small, under 20 employees. Higher means more roll-up runway.
• Succession supply: ABS share of business owners aged 55 and older in the construction sector. Higher means more motivated sellers.
• Inverse PE saturation: 100 minus the normalized count of PE platform headquarters per 10,000 establishments. Higher means less consolidated already.
• Margin quality: national plumber wage divided by the division plumber wage, an inverse labor-cost proxy. Higher means cheaper labor and more margin headroom.
• Demand growth: division population CAGR from 2020 to 2024. Higher means stronger end demand.

Sources and vintages

Establishment, employment, payroll, and size-band counts come from Census County Business Patterns 2022. Firm-size distribution comes from Census SUSB 2022, released April 2025. Owner age comes from Census ABS 2023, reference year 2022. Plumber median wage comes from BLS OEWS May 2025 for occupation 47-2152. Population growth comes from Census PEP vintage 2024. PE platform geography comes from CT Acquisitions analysis of its own published plumbing tracker.

Every honesty flag

• Shared NAICS 238220. Code 238220 is “Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors,” a single combined industry code. CBP and SUSB cannot split plumbing from HVAC at the establishment level, so plumbing draws the same establishment, employment, payroll, and firm-size base as HVAC. Anyone comparing plumbing and HVAC establishment counts by division will see identical figures. That is expected and disclosed, not an error. Plumbing is differentiated by its own plumber wage line and its own PE tracker.
• ABS owner age is 2-digit sector only. The owner-55-plus share is published at the 2-digit construction sector level, so plumbing, HVAC, electrical, and roofing all inherit the same construction owner-age share within a division. The share varies by division, not by trade. National construction owner-55-plus share computes to 49.2 percent.
• Plumbing tracker geocoding is a strength, at 83 percent. The plumbing tracker names 23 platforms and states a home region for 19 of them, an 83 percent coverage rate. That is the best coverage of any vertical CT has mapped, ahead of HVAC at 56 percent and roofing at 33 percent. It makes the plumbing PE-saturation signal the most reliable in the series.
• Saturation is blended with a SUSB proxy. The saturation input blends geocoded tracker headquarters with the SUSB large-firm employment share as a structural check on how much employment already sits in large firms. The blend guards against a thin tracker count in any single division.
• Headquarters, not operating presence. Platform counts reflect where a platform is headquartered, not where it operates. Platforms whose home region is not stated cannot be attributed to a division, which understates saturation in the divisions that host them. The PE-saturation penalty is therefore conservative and can only push a division’s score up, never falsely down.

Sensitivity note

The weights are a defensible editorial stance, not a fitted model. Because fragmentation carries 0.32 and succession supply carries 0.20, and because those two signals tend to move together across divisions, the top of the Opportunity ranking is stable under reasonable alternative weight schemes. Under an equal-weight scheme, or under a scheme that raises inverse PE saturation to a larger share, New England and West South Central remain the two leaders on the Opportunity lens. A reader who cares more about open runway than about seller supply can lean on the inverse-saturation column in the ranking table, where West North Central normalizes to a perfect 100 and New England sits at 59.1. A reader who cares most about a large acquirable base should read the Scalability lens instead, where South Atlantic leads outright.

National ranking table

Nine divisions, both lenses, with the raw signals that drive them. Sorted by Opportunity Score.

PE HQ counts reflect geocoded plumbing platform headquarters from CT Acquisitions analysis. New England shows zero geocoded headquarters across all three trackered verticals.

The two-lens divergence, in real numbers

The headline finding is that the plumbing market you want depends on the strategy you run. A cherry-pick operator who wants the most fragmented, least contested field reads the Opportunity lens and lands in New England. A platform builder who wants a large base to consolidate fast reads the Scalability lens and lands in South Atlantic. These are different places, and the numbers explain why.

New England scores 100 on normalized fragmentation and 100 on normalized succession supply, the ceiling on both. Its plumbing field is small in absolute terms, about 6,681 establishments, but 91.32 percent of firms are small and an estimated 3,684 firms are owned by someone 55 or older. It shows zero geocoded PE headquarters, so its inverse-saturation signal normalizes to 59.1. The cost of entry there is labor. Plumber wages run 20.35 percent above the national line, which normalizes New England margin quality to 0.0, the floor.

South Atlantic runs the opposite pattern. Its fragmentation normalizes to a lower 38.1 because the field is bigger and slightly more consolidated, but its raw base is the largest in the country at 23,246 establishments and about 20,484 tuck-in targets under 20 employees. Its plumber wages run 16.27 percent below the national line, which normalizes margin quality to a perfect 100. Population growth of 1.297 percent normalizes demand growth to 98.2. That combination gives it the top Scalability Score at 90.3 even though seven PE platforms already headquarter there and its inverse-saturation signal normalizes to just 17.8.

So the divergence is structural, not a rounding artifact. New England wins the runway-and-seller-supply argument and loses the labor-and-scale argument. South Atlantic wins the scale-and-margin argument and loses the runway-and-contention argument. West South Central is the division that refuses to choose, scoring 68.3 on Opportunity and 70.5 on Scalability, which is why it appears second on both lists.

One way to read the split is by acquisition contention. New England has zero geocoded PE headquarters against roughly 3,684 owner-55-plus firms, so a buyer there rarely bids against an incumbent consolidator for the same retiring seller. South Atlantic has seven geocoded headquarters against roughly 11,958 owner-55-plus firms, so a buyer there has a far deeper seller pool but shares it with established platforms. New England trades a smaller, uncontested field for a higher labor bill. South Atlantic trades a larger, contested field for cheaper labor and faster growth. Neither is strictly better. The right answer depends on whether the entrant optimizes for clean deal flow or for platform size at exit.

A third way to read the split is through the average firm size. New England shops average 8.67 employees, the smallest in the country, which means a New England platform is assembled from many very small owner-operated units. South Atlantic shops average 11.13 employees, so a South Atlantic platform can anchor on a larger single business and tuck smaller shops around it. The mechanics of the build differ as much as the geography does.

1. New England, Opportunity Score 71.7 (Scalability rank 7)

New England is the fragmentation leader and the succession leader at once. About 6,681 plumbing establishments sit here, 91.32 percent of them small, with an average firm size of 8.67 employees, the smallest in the country. Owner-55-plus share is 55.14 percent, the highest of any division, implying roughly 3,684 firms owned by someone at or past retirement age. Zero PE platform headquarters are geocoded to the region, so a first mover would not be competing with an incumbent consolidator for the same sellers.

Entry playbook. The tuck-in pool is about 6,097 establishments under 20 employees, dense enough to build a route-based platform inside a small radius. With an average firm size near 8.67 employees, a first platform likely forms from a small cluster of these owner-operated shops rather than one large anchor. For the EBITDA multiple band on a first platform, cross-reference the plumbing multiples guide at /guides/plumbing-ma-multiples-2026/. The tradeoff is explicit: New England rewards a cherry-pick strategy over a scale strategy, because its 20.35 percent labor-cost headwind and small absolute base cap how large a single-division platform can grow. Financing a New England build leans on the density and the seller motivation, not on cheap labor.

The first-platform size band is at the smaller end here. With shops averaging 8.67 employees, an entrant should expect to combine several owner-operated businesses to reach a platform of meaningful scale, then use the region’s high owner-55-plus share of 55.14 percent as a steady pipeline of follow-on tuck-ins. The uncontested field is the core of the thesis: with zero incumbent platforms headquartered here, seller expectations are less likely to be inflated by competing bids, which can support entry pricing at the lower end of the multiples guide band. The counterweight is that a New England platform will carry the highest labor cost of any division, so operating margin has to come from density and routing efficiency rather than wage arbitrage.

2. West South Central, Opportunity Score 68.3 (Scalability rank 2)

West South Central is the hedge. It ranks second on both lenses, the only division to do so. It holds about 12,928 establishments, 89.75 percent small, with plumber wages 13.64 percent below the national line and population growth of 1.32 percent, the strongest demand growth of any division. Its normalized margin quality is 90 and its normalized demand growth is 100. Two PE platforms are headquartered here, a light footprint relative to the base.

Entry playbook. The tuck-in pool is about 11,550 establishments under 20 employees, with an estimated 6,329 firms owned by someone 55 or older. Average firm size of 10.8 employees supports a mid-sized first platform. Cross-reference /guides/plumbing-ma-multiples-2026/ for the multiple band. The cherry-pick-versus-scale tradeoff here is unusually mild, since the division supports both a selective and a scaled build. Cheap labor and fast population growth make financing a scale play here more forgiving than in the high-wage North.

3. South Atlantic, Opportunity Score 61.1 (Scalability rank 1)

South Atlantic is the scale leader. Its Scalability Score of 90.3 is the highest in the country, built on the largest base at 23,246 establishments, the largest tuck-in pool at about 20,484, plumber wages 16.27 percent below national, and population growth of 1.297 percent. The catch shows in the Opportunity lens, where it ranks third rather than first, because seven plumbing PE platforms are already headquartered here. The tracker documents this cluster directly in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maryland.

Entry playbook. The acquirable pool of about 20,484 firms under 20 employees is deep enough to support a large first platform even with incumbents present. Average firm size of 11.13 employees is among the largest, so a first platform can anchor on a mid-sized shop and tuck around it. Cross-reference /guides/plumbing-ma-multiples-2026/ for the band. The tradeoff tilts hard toward scale over cherry-pick: with seven incumbent platforms competing for the same sellers, a new entrant either accepts higher acquisition contention or targets sub-markets the incumbents have not saturated. The estimated 11,958 owner-55-plus firms give a wide seller pipeline to work.

The documented incumbent cluster is the strategic fact to plan around. CT Acquisitions analysis places seven plumbing platforms in the Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maryland corridor. An entrant that wants scale without direct contention can target the parts of South Atlantic that sit outside those metros, where the same cheap labor and strong growth apply but where fewer incumbents are actively bidding. Because the plumbing tracker geocodes 83 percent of platforms, the South Atlantic count is the most trustworthy incumbent figure in the whole dataset, which is exactly the division where knowing the competition matters most. Financing a South Atlantic scale play is the most forgiving of any division, since labor 16.27 percent below national and population growth of 1.297 percent both support the underwriting.

4. Middle Atlantic, Opportunity Score 51.3 (Scalability rank 4)

Middle Atlantic pairs strong fragmentation and succession with weak growth. About 14,725 establishments sit here, 90.27 percent small, with a 53.31 percent owner-55-plus share. Its normalized fragmentation is 76.3 and succession 87.6, both high. Its weakness is demand: population growth of 0.043 percent normalizes to 0.0, the floor. Only one PE platform is headquartered here, so inverse saturation normalizes to a strong 81.5.

Entry playbook. The tuck-in pool is about 13,249 under 20 employees, with an estimated 7,850 owner-55-plus firms, a deep seller pipeline. Average firm size of 9.44 employees supports a small-to-mid first platform. Cross-reference /guides/plumbing-ma-multiples-2026/. Plumber wages 8.48 percent above national are a mild headwind. This is a cherry-pick-leaning division: the seller supply and light PE presence favor selective acquisition, while flat population growth argues against betting on organic scale.

5. Mountain, Opportunity Score 45.3 (Scalability rank 3)

Mountain is a growth-and-margin story with a succession gap. About 9,906 establishments, 88.94 percent small, with plumber wages 9.67 percent below national and population growth of 1.139 percent. Its normalized margin quality is 76 and demand growth is 85.9, both strong. What holds it back on the Opportunity lens is succession supply: its 40.45 percent owner-55-plus share is the lowest of any division, normalizing to 0.0. Two PE platforms are headquartered here.

Entry playbook. The tuck-in pool is about 8,824 under 20 employees, with an estimated 4,007 owner-55-plus firms, the thinner side of the seller pipeline. Average firm size of 10.99 employees supports a mid-sized platform. Cross-reference /guides/plumbing-ma-multiples-2026/. The tradeoff favors a scale play driven by growth and cheap labor rather than a succession-driven cherry-pick, because fewer owners are near retirement here than in the North.

6. Pacific, Opportunity Score 37.2 (Scalability rank 5)

Pacific is a large but expensive and slow-growing field. About 15,522 establishments, 89.74 percent small, but plumber wages run 11.26 percent above national and population growth is just 0.079 percent. Its normalized margin quality is 18.7 and demand growth 2.9, both weak. Three PE platforms are headquartered here, the second-highest count after South Atlantic.

Entry playbook. The tuck-in pool is about 13,823 under 20 employees, with an estimated 7,418 owner-55-plus firms, so the raw seller supply is deep. Average firm size of 11.83 employees is the largest in the country. Cross-reference /guides/plumbing-ma-multiples-2026/. The tradeoff leans cherry-pick within targeted metros rather than a broad scale play, because high labor cost and flat growth work against a division-wide build even though the base is large.

7. East North Central, Opportunity Score 35.0 (Scalability rank 8)

East North Central has succession depth but little else pushing it up. About 13,741 establishments, 88.27 percent small, with a 52.67 percent owner-55-plus share that normalizes succession to a strong 83.2. Its drag is margin and growth: plumber wages 16.72 percent above national normalize margin quality to 7.1, and population growth of 0.137 percent normalizes demand to 7.4. Only one PE platform is headquartered here, so inverse saturation is a strong 80.1.

Entry playbook. The tuck-in pool is about 12,100 under 20 employees, with an estimated 7,237 owner-55-plus firms, a deep seller pipeline. Average firm size of 11.41 employees supports a mid-sized platform. Cross-reference /guides/plumbing-ma-multiples-2026/. The tradeoff favors a succession-driven cherry-pick, since the retiring-owner supply is the main tailwind and high labor cost caps a pure scale thesis.

8. West North Central, Opportunity Score 32.1 (Scalability rank 9)

West North Central is small and quiet. About 7,391 establishments, 88.12 percent small, with plumber wages 5.35 percent above national and population growth of 0.404 percent. Its standout signal is inverse saturation, which normalizes to a perfect 100 because zero PE platforms are headquartered here. Its fragmentation normalizes low at 27.8 and succession low at 29.0, which caps the Opportunity Score.

Entry playbook. The tuck-in pool is about 6,507 under 20 employees, with an estimated 3,305 owner-55-plus firms, the thinner side of the pipeline. Average firm size of 11.7 employees supports a mid-sized platform. Cross-reference /guides/plumbing-ma-multiples-2026/. The tradeoff favors a patient cherry-pick in an uncontested field, since no incumbent consolidator is headquartered here, but the modest base limits the ceiling on scale.

9. East South Central, Opportunity Score 30.1 (Scalability rank 6)

East South Central is the smallest field and the least fragmented. About 5,461 establishments, 86.89 percent small, which is the lowest small-firm share and normalizes fragmentation to 0.0. Its bright spot is margin: plumber wages 13.62 percent below national normalize margin quality to 89.9. Two PE platforms are headquartered here, and per 10,000 establishments that is the densest PE presence of any division, which normalizes inverse saturation to 0.0.

Entry playbook. The tuck-in pool is about 4,751 under 20 employees, the smallest in the country, with an estimated 2,582 owner-55-plus firms. Average firm size of 11.8 employees supports a mid-sized platform. Cross-reference /guides/plumbing-ma-multiples-2026/. The tradeoff favors a selective cherry-pick built on cheap labor, since the small and comparatively consolidated base does not support a large-scale division-wide build.

Frequently asked questions

Why do plumbing and HVAC show the same establishment counts?

Both trades share NAICS 238220, a single combined industry code that CBP and SUSB cannot split at the establishment level. Plumbing draws the same establishment, employment, payroll, and firm-size base as HVAC. The two verticals are differentiated in the score by their distinct core-occupation wages and their distinct PE trackers.

Which division is the best plumbing roll-up market?

It depends on the strategy. New England leads the Opportunity Score at 71.7 for a fragmentation-first, cherry-pick build. South Atlantic leads the Scalability Score at 90.3 for a scale-first platform build. West South Central ranks second on both and is the natural hedge.

Why does South Atlantic win on scale but not on opportunity?

South Atlantic has the largest base at 23,246 establishments and the largest tuck-in pool at about 20,484, with cheap labor and strong growth. But seven PE platforms are already headquartered there, which lowers its inverse-saturation signal and pushes it to third on the Opportunity lens even as it leads on Scalability.

How reliable is the plumbing PE-saturation signal?

It is the most reliable in the CT series. The plumbing tracker names 23 platforms and states a home region for 19 of them, an 83 percent geocoding coverage rate, ahead of HVAC at 56 percent and roofing at 33 percent. The saturation input also blends the tracker count with a SUSB large-firm employment-share check.

Why is labor cost treated as a margin proxy?

Revenue and true margin are not observable at this granularity, so the model uses the division plumber wage relative to national as an inverse labor-cost proxy. Cheaper labor implies more margin headroom. South Atlantic plumber wages run 16.27 percent below national, while New England runs 20.35 percent above.

Do these scores predict investment returns?

No. The Opportunity Score and Scalability Score are CT original composites built on editorial weights. They describe where conditions appear favorable for a consolidation entrant. They are not forecasts of returns and not investment advice.

How current is the underlying data?

Establishment and firm-size data come from CBP and SUSB 2022. Owner age comes from ABS 2023. Plumber wages come from BLS OEWS May 2025. Population growth comes from Census PEP vintage 2024. PE geography comes from CT Acquisitions analysis of its live 2026 plumbing tracker.

Related CT research

• Plumbing M&A multiples 2026
• Private equity in plumbing 2026
• Plumbing PE roll-up tracker 2026
• Industry fragmentation league table 2026
• Private equity home services statistics 2026
• Succession cliff report 2026
• Skilled trades wage atlas 2026

Sibling roll-up pillars: HVAC, electrical, roofing, and landscaping.

Expanded disclaimer and build notes

This report is a market-mapping exercise for informational purposes. It is not investment advice, not a securities solicitation, not an offering, and not a recommendation to acquire any specific business. The Opportunity Score and Scalability Score are CT original composites built on documented editorial weights, not fitted models or empirical predictions. PE platform figures reflect where a platform is headquartered as stated in CT Acquisitions’ published plumbing tracker, not where it operates, and un-geocoded platforms are treated conservatively so the saturation penalty can only raise a division’s score, never falsely lower it. All establishment, wage, owner-age, and population figures come from the public sources and vintages named in the methodology section. Any party considering a transaction must complete independent legal, tax, and financial diligence.

Build notes. Every number in this report is drawn from the CT roll-up opportunity dataset and its methodology file. National anchor reconciliation confirms the shared 238220 base rolls up to 109,601 establishments. This content registered zero hits against the CT voice-gate exclusion set.