Section 1. Scope, Methodology, and Reading Guide

The political economy of private equity employment effects has reached an inflection point. Between January 2023 and June 2026, a cohort of named PE-backed bankruptcies has shed documented employment at a scale that the academic literature framework (Davis, Haltiwanger, Handley, Lerner, Lipsius, and Miranda 2019 / NBER Working Paper 26371; Gupta, Howell, Yannelis 2021/2024) anticipated but for which no continuously updated public-source cohort study existed. This brief constructs that cohort study using only public BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, named bankruptcy court records, and the Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP) tracker.

The methodology is the contribution. DHJLM uses restricted Census Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) microdata accessible only at Federal Statistical Research Data Centers under Title 13 confidentiality, with project approval cycles of 6 to 18 months (Census LBD overview). Congressional staff cannot wait 18 months. Reuters reporters cannot wait 18 months. Labor union research desks at SEIU, AFT, UFCW, and the Teamsters cannot wait 18 months. The CT Acquisitions cohort study uses public BLS QCEW data covering more than 95% of US jobs at the 6-digit NAICS level by county, fully downloadable at no cost (BLS QCEW overview). Confidence: HIGH on QCEW coverage, MEDIUM on QCEW-to-named-cohort mapping due to cell suppression, GAP on real-time bankruptcy event capture due to 1 to 2 quarter QCEW lag.

Scope. The brief covers PE-backed bankruptcies, Chapter 11 filings, and major distressed exits between January 1 2023 and June 21 2026, with employment-impact data sourced from court filings, WARN Act notices to state labor departments, PESP cohort reporting, and primary-source news coverage. Verticals covered: healthcare (hospitals, nursing homes, physician services, EMS, dialysis); retail (general merchandise, specialty retail, drug stores); restaurants (full-service and limited-service); trucking and logistics; newspapers and publishing. Reading guide: Section 2 establishes federal data systems. Sections 3 and 4 anchor the academic baseline. Section 5 presents the named cohort table. Sections 6 through 13 break out vertical-level NAICS QCEW trajectory analysis. Section 14 presents the 9-step replication methodology. Sections 15 through 22 cover documented gaps, the Senate Budget Committee bipartisan report, counter-citations, forward cohorts, contrarian findings, policy implications, limitations, and related CT research.

Section 2. Why a QCEW Plus Named Cohort Approach Matters for Citation

The citation argument is straightforward. A Reuters healthcare reporter writing a Steward Health Care follow-up on a 12-month anniversary needs a number for “how many jobs were lost at Steward hospitals in the 24 months ending May 2026 relative to a counterfactual non-PE Massachusetts hospital baseline.” That number does not exist in any published academic paper as of June 2026 because DHJLM 2019 stops at 2013 vintage cohorts and the 2024 RFS Gupta-Howell paper stops at 2017 vintage cohorts. The QCEW-by-county series for NAICS 622110 in Suffolk County, Massachusetts (Steward Caritas Christi origin) and the seven other Steward state footprints is available within 5 to 6 months of the relevant quarter end (BLS QCEW data download), which means the May 2024 bankruptcy is fully captured in 2024Q4 and 2025Q1 QCEW releases that were public by mid-2025.

The same logic applies to the Senate Budget Committee bipartisan investigation that Senators Whitehouse and Grassley led, the Senate HELP Committee Steward investigation under Senator Sanders (Senate HELP press release), the Senate Finance Committee Genesis HealthCare letter Senator Warren signed (Warren Genesis letter July 2025), and the Connecticut Attorney General Statement of Interest in the Prospect Medical bankruptcy (Connecticut AG Prospect statement). Each of these workstreams requires a defensible number. The DHJLM framework conditioning on deal type (public-to-private vs private-to-private vs divisional vs secondary) is the methodologically honest answer. The CT Acquisitions cohort study supplies the 2024 through 2026 vertical-by-vertical translation. Confidence: HIGH on policy-citation demand, MEDIUM on replication fidelity at the 6-digit NAICS-by-county level, GAP on confidential cell suppression in low-establishment-count counties.

Section 3. Federal Data Systems: QCEW vs LBD vs BDS vs LEHD vs JOLTS

Five federal microdata systems anchor the modern PE employment literature. Each has different access, coverage, and lag characteristics.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Coverage of more than 95% of US jobs across 11 million establishments. Quarterly. Available at the 6-digit NAICS code level by county, MSA, state, and national aggregations, subject to disclosure rules that suppress cells where a single employer dominates. Sourced from state unemployment insurance reporting and federal Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees. NAICS-classified series available from 1990 forward, with 2022 forward using the 2022 NAICS revision (QCEW NAICS hierarchy crosswalk). Critical attribute: QCEW is fully public, no Census Bureau project approval needed, downloadable as CSV or queryable through the QCEW Data Viewer at data.bls.gov/cew/apps/data_views/data_views.htm. Critical limitation: aggregated, so a researcher cannot identify a specific firm’s establishments from QCEW alone. Confidence: HIGH.

Census Longitudinal Business Database (LBD). Census of all US business establishments and firms with paid employees, constructed from administrative records and the Business Register. Annual. The LBD is the firm-level matched microdata that DHJLM, Gupta-Howell, and most NBER PE research relies on. Access is restricted to approved researchers under Title 13 and Title 26 confidentiality protections, working in Federal Statistical Research Data Centers (FSRDCs). Project approval typically takes 6 to 18 months. The public-use Synthetic LBD (SynLBD) is a noise-injected synthetic dataset that approximates LBD distributions but is not adequate for precise replication of firm-level buyout effects (LBD overview). Confidence: HIGH on coverage, GAP on access for non-academic researchers.

Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS). Public-use aggregations of LBD covering job creation, job destruction, establishment births, establishment deaths, and net employment change by firm size, firm age, industry, and state. BDS is the LBD’s public-facing aggregated companion. Annual. Lag of roughly 18 months (Census BDS). Useful as a sanity check for QCEW NAICS series but not granular enough to pull a specific cohort. Confidence: MEDIUM.

BLS Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI). Worker-employer matched data combining state UI wage records with Census demographic data. Quarterly. Tracks worker transitions, earnings trajectories, and job-to-job flows. LEHD is the system that lets a researcher answer: when a PE-backed firm lays off workers, where do those workers go next and what happens to their earnings. Available in public-use form as the QWI at qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov and in restricted-use form to FSRDC researchers. Confidence: MEDIUM on public QWI granularity, HIGH on restricted LEHD precision.

BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Monthly survey of about 21,000 nonfarm establishments measuring hires, separations, quits, layoffs and discharges, and job openings. National and four-region. Useful for sectoral context, not for cohort-level analysis. Confidence: LOW on cohort utility, HIGH on monthly trend reporting.

For the CT Acquisitions methodology contribution outlined in Section 14, the operationally feasible system is QCEW. It is the only system that combines (a) full public access with no application, (b) 6-digit NAICS granularity, (c) county-level resolution, and (d) coverage of more than 95% of US jobs.

Section 4. The DHJLM NBER 26371 Baseline (Full 2-Year and 5-Year Effects, Heterogeneity by Deal Type)

The foundational paper is Steven J. Davis, John C. Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ben Lipsius, Josh Lerner, and Javier Miranda, “The (Heterogeneous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts,” NBER Working Paper number 26371, first issued October 2019 and revised through April 2024 (NBER WP 26371). The paper covers thousands of US PE buyouts from 1980 through 2013 matched against millions of control firms using restricted Census LBD microdata. The Journal of Finance accepted the paper for publication after a multi-year revision cycle.

The headline findings every reader needs to internalize.

Public-to-private buyouts: employment contracts by roughly 12% over two years post-buyout relative to control firms. Confidence: HIGH. This is the central political-economy finding. When a PE sponsor takes a publicly listed firm private and runs it through a debt-financed transformation, the modal outcome is meaningful workforce reduction at target establishments within 24 months.

Private-to-private buyouts: employment expands by roughly 15% over two years post-buyout relative to control firms. Confidence: HIGH. This is the central pro-PE finding. When a PE sponsor buys a privately held mid-market business and provides growth capital, professional management, and operational support, the modal outcome is workforce expansion within 24 months. Roughly 85% of PE deals by count fall in this category.

Divisional sales (a PE sponsor buys a division of a public company): employment effects are intermediate and modestly positive. Confidence: MEDIUM.

Secondary buyouts (PE sponsor buys from another PE sponsor): employment effects modestly negative. Confidence: MEDIUM.

These four buyout types account for nearly all PE transactions, and the heterogeneity across them is the central methodological insight. Aggregating all four into a single “PE buyout” treatment effect masks an enormous gap between public-to-private deals (where workforce reductions are large and durable) and private-to-private deals (where employment grows). The DHJLM finding that the average effect is modest is real, but it averages a roughly 27 percentage point gap between the two largest deal categories. Any single-statistic claim about PE and jobs (“PE creates jobs” or “PE kills jobs”) is therefore false at the aggregate. The honest claim requires conditioning on deal type.

Additional DHJLM findings.

Productivity at target firms rises by approximately 7.5% over two years post-buyout relative to controls, with larger gains in deals executed amid tight credit conditions. Confidence: HIGH. Macroeconomic downturns reduce both employment growth and job reallocation at PE-acquired firms. Effects vary significantly across PE sponsor groups, with rapid fund deployment correlated to lower employment growth at targets.

The earlier Davis, Haltiwanger, Jarmin, Lerner, Miranda (2014) “Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity,” American Economic Review 104(12): 3956 to 3990 covers US PE transactions from 1980 to 2005, tracks 3,200 target firms across 150,000 establishments, and finds employment at target establishments declines approximately 3% over two years post-buyout and approximately 6% over five years post-buyout relative to controls (AER 2014). This is the precursor finding that the 2019 paper expanded. Confidence: HIGH.

The DHJLM 2019 paper is the academic baseline for every modern PE jobs claim. Eileen Appelbaum cites it. Brendan Ballou cites it. The Senate Budget Committee bipartisan report cites it. AIC and EY rebuttal pieces cite it (selectively). Any CT Acquisitions citation magnet brief that purports to discuss PE and jobs must engage DHJLM at this level of specificity.

Section 5. The Appelbaum and Batt Framework

Eileen Appelbaum is Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington DC. Rosemary Batt is the Alice Hanson Cook Professor of Women and Work at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Their 2014 book Private Equity at Work: When Wall Street Manages Main Street (Russell Sage Foundation) is the canonical qualitative-and-quantitative survey of PE business strategies (Russell Sage publication page). Appelbaum has testified before the House Committee on Financial Services and provided expert commentary to the Senate HELP Committee Steward investigation (CEPR Appelbaum House testimony). She is the single most-cited PE critic in mainstream healthcare and labor reporting.

Key Appelbaum and Batt findings from the 2014 book and follow-on work: from 2000 through 2013, nearly 11,500 US companies representing roughly 8 million employees were acquired by private equity firms. PE business strategies disproportionately benefit PE general partners at the expense of workers, vendors, and taxpayers, with debt-financed buyout obligations transferred to target companies. PE-owned companies operate outside SEC reporting frameworks, with no obligation to disclose financial position to non-investor stakeholders. Healthcare is the sector where PE quality and safety effects are most clearly documented, including nursing homes, ER staffing, dialysis, dermatology, autism services, and behavioral health. Confidence: HIGH.

Specific PE-backed cohorts Appelbaum has highlighted in testimony and commentary include: Cerberus Capital and Carlyle Group nursing home portfolios; Centerbridge Partners era at Genesis HealthCare; KKR Envision Healthcare; Apollo TeamHealth; American Securities Air Methods; Cerberus Steward Health Care; Leonard Green Prospect Medical Holdings; Bain Capital + KKR + Vornado Realty Toys R Us (Chapter 11 September 2017); Ares Management and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board 99 Cents Only Stores; Leonard Green Joann; Golden Gate Capital then Thai Union Red Lobster; Sentinel Capital and TriArtisan Capital TGI Fridays; Mill Road Capital Rubio’s Coastal Grill. The 2024 and 2025 CEPR research agenda has shifted toward two adjacent issues: (1) the financialization of nonprofit hospitals through PE-affiliated real estate investment trust arrangements (Medical Properties Trust played the landlord role in the Steward bankruptcy), and (2) the rapid expansion of PE into university endowments and retirement-account allocations (CEPR Working Paper 118 Appelbaum and Batt 2020).

Brendan Ballou served as Special Counsel for Private Equity in the DOJ Antitrust Division through 2023. His book Plunder: Private Equity’s Plan to Pillage America (PublicAffairs, 2023) covers roll-ups specifically as a PE tactic (Plunder book site). Ballou’s framing is the natural complement to Appelbaum’s: where Appelbaum documents the worker and patient outcomes, Ballou documents the antitrust and regulatory failures that allow the roll-up dynamic to persist. His call for federal agencies to investigate roll-ups is the policy hook for the cohort study below. Confidence: HIGH.

Section 6. The Gupta-Howell-Yannelis Nursing Home Mortality Finding

Gupta, Howell, Yannelis, and Gupta, “Owner Incentives and Performance in Healthcare: Private Equity Investment in Nursing Homes,” NBER Working Paper 28474 (February 2021), published in Review of Financial Studies 37(4): 1029 to 1077 (2024) (NBER WP 28474). Sample: roughly 18,000 US nursing homes from 2000 through 2017, matched to PE ownership records and Medicare beneficiary outcomes. Confidence: HIGH.

Headline finding: PE ownership of nursing homes raises short-term Medicare patient mortality by approximately 10%, implying roughly 20,150 excess deaths attributable to PE ownership over the twelve-year sample period. Mechanism: PE acquisition is associated with declines in patient well-being measures, declines in nurse staffing levels, declines in compliance with care standards, and a systematic shift in operating costs toward non-patient items including monitoring fees, interest expense, and lease payments. The 2024 RFS publication elevated this from working paper to peer-reviewed finance journal of record. Confidence: HIGH.

The Gupta-Howell finding is the most-cited single statistic in the modern PE-in-healthcare political debate. Senator Warren cites it in floor speeches. The Senate Budget Committee bipartisan report cites it. Modern Healthcare, Kaiser Health News, ProPublica, The American Prospect, and The Lever all reference the 20,150-excess-deaths estimate as the empirical anchor. The DHJLM employment finding and the Gupta-Howell mortality finding together constitute the academic baseline for any 2024-2026 cohort study of PE in healthcare. Follow-on work includes the Annals of Internal Medicine hospital staffing study (Annals of Internal Medicine on PE hospital staffing), the JAMA adverse-events study summarized by Fierce Healthcare (Fierce Healthcare on JAMA adverse events), the Harvard Medical School emergency-room mortality study (Harvard Medical School on ER deaths post PE acquisition), and the California Health Care Foundation prevalence-and-impact report (CHCF PE prevalence and impact).

Section 7. Named PE-Backed Bankruptcy Cohort Table 2023 through Mid-2026

The table below lists named PE-backed bankruptcies, distressed exits, and major reorganizations between January 1 2023 and June 21 2026 with documented employment impact. Each row carries: target firm, primary PE sponsor exposure, transaction date, bankruptcy filing date, peak employment, employment impact, primary NAICS code, primary geography, primary source. Confidence cells are reported in per-firm sections below the table.

Aggregated cohort totals. Per PESP, private equity-related bankruptcies in calendar year 2024 produced at least 65,850 documented layoffs nationally (PESP 2024 Bankruptcies report). PE-backed companies accounted for 21% of all US healthcare bankruptcies in 2024 and 56% of all corporate bankruptcies with liabilities exceeding $500 million. In Q1 2025, PE played a role in 70% of the largest US bankruptcies. For full-year 2025, PESP reports PE involvement in 54% (19 of 35) of US corporate bankruptcies with liabilities of $1 billion or more at filing. Confidence: HIGH on aggregate counts, MEDIUM on cohort-specific employment attribution due to multi-segment firms and gradual run-down dynamics.

Section 8. Healthcare Vertical NAICS Cohort Analysis

The healthcare PE bankruptcy cohort 2023 through mid-2026 is the largest single vertical by both job-loss count and policy-relevance density. The cohort touches NAICS 622110 (general hospitals), NAICS 623110 (skilled nursing facilities), NAICS 621111 (offices of physicians), NAICS 621112 (offices of mental health practitioners), NAICS 621210 (offices of dentists), NAICS 621399 (offices of all other miscellaneous health practitioners), NAICS 621498 (all other outpatient care centers), NAICS 621511 (medical and diagnostic laboratories), and NAICS 621910 (ambulance services).

Steward Health Care (Cerberus 2010 to 2020, Chapter 11 May 6 2024). Cerberus Capital Management acquired six Massachusetts nonprofit Caritas Christi hospitals in 2010 for approximately $895 million; Cerberus exited in 2020 having reportedly extracted roughly $800 million in dividends, fees, and sale proceeds during its hold period. Chapter 11 filing: May 6 2024 in the US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas. Peak employment: approximately 30,000 across 31 hospitals in 8 states. Pre-bankruptcy employment losses: at least 2,650 workers laid off across 6 hospital closures in the six years preceding bankruptcy, with 2 of those closures in 2024 alone. Reported liabilities at filing: approximately $9 billion, including $290 million in unpaid employee wages and benefits, roughly $1 billion in unpaid vendor obligations, and $6.6 billion in long-term rent obligations to Medical Properties Trust (REIT landlord) (PESP Pillaging of Steward Health Care). Senate HELP Committee 20 to 1 bipartisan vote in July 2024 to investigate, with subpoena 16 to 4 for CEO Ralph de la Torre (Senate HELP Committee Steward hearing). Confidence: HIGH on PE attribution, HIGH on aggregate employment.

Envision Healthcare (KKR October 2018 take-private $9.9 billion, Chapter 11 May 15 2023). KKR financed the take-private with $7 billion of debt. Peak employment: approximately 25,000 clinicians and clinical support staff across ER, anesthesia, radiology, and ambulatory practice. Documented layoffs: 167 New York employees in March 2023, 162 Pennsylvania employees in May 2023, additional reductions through the restructuring. Emerged from bankruptcy split into Envision Physician Services and AMSURG with debt reduced by more than 70%. KKR’s roughly $3.5 billion equity stake wiped out. Driver: the No Surprises Act effective January 1 2022 directly undermined the surprise-billing economics of the PE-backed ER staffing model (PESP Envision, Senate HSGAC KKR Envision file). Confidence: HIGH.

Prospect Medical Holdings (Leonard Green 2010 to 2021, Chapter 11 January 11 2025). Leonard Green exited in 2021 having extracted $645 million in dividends and preferred-stock redemptions including $424 million flowing to Leonard Green investors. Pre-filing footprint: 16 hospitals across California, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Liabilities and assets each between $1 billion and $10 billion. More than 100,000 creditors. Multiple Pennsylvania hospitals (Crozer Health) permanently closed. Texas facilities permanently closed with more than 1,000 employees laid off. Rhode Island hospitals (CharterCARE) sought buyers. Primary public-policy fallout: Delaware County, Pennsylvania, with 576,000 residents, was reduced to two emergency rooms post-closure, eliminating two-thirds of county ED capacity (Healthcare Dive Prospect Medical, The American Prospect on Prospect Medical, Connecticut AG Statement of Interest). Confidence: HIGH.

Cano Health (de-SPAC 2021 peak $4.4 billion, Chapter 11 February 4 2024). Employment at filing: approximately 2,800 full-time employees. Pre-bankruptcy layoffs: 842 employees (21% of staff) cut in November 2023. Contracted with approximately 630 independent physician practices. Reorganized into private company emerging June 28 2024 with focus on Florida market. Driver: the CMS Medicare Advantage risk-adjustment payment model overhaul phased in by the Biden administration reduced the value of the company’s coding-intensive book of business (STAT News Cano Health). Confidence: HIGH.

Air Methods (American Securities October 2017 ~$2.5 billion, Chapter 11 October 24 2023). Pre-filing debt: approximately $2.24 billion. Fleet: 365 medical helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft at 275 bases across 47 states. Drivers: high operating costs, rising interest rates, and the No Surprises Act of 2020. Emerged from Chapter 11 on December 28 2023 with debt reduced by approximately $1.7 billion. American Securities equity wiped out, lenders converted to ownership (AIN Air Methods bankruptcy). Confidence: HIGH.

Genesis HealthCare (Centerbridge 2007 era; ReGen 93% equity since 2021, Chapter 11 July 2025). Footprint at filing: approximately 175 skilled nursing and assisted living facilities across 18 states. Pre-filing debt: more than $2.3 billion. Liabilities included at least $259 million in malpractice and wrongful-death claims and $58 million in unpaid Pennsylvania state taxes. Despite $665 million in pandemic-era federal and state assistance, the operator entered terminal financial distress. Note: Centerbridge Partners control structure was part of the 2007 debt-financed transactions and earlier post-2011 going-private; not all post-2021 ownership runs through Centerbridge directly, but Centerbridge is the PE name most associated with Genesis in academic and labor-side commentary (PESP Genesis HealthCare, Senator Warren Genesis letter July 2025). Confidence: HIGH on ReGen, MEDIUM on Centerbridge residual attribution.

Nursing home cohort generally (NAICS 623110). Gupta-Howell-Yannelis NBER 28474 / RFS 2024 covers roughly 18,000 nursing homes from 2000 through 2017 and recovers a 10% short-term Medicare patient mortality increase under PE ownership, implying roughly 20,150 excess deaths over the twelve-year sample. The 2024 RFS publication elevated this from working paper to peer-reviewed finance journal of record (NBER WP 28474). The 2024 to 2026 named cohort extension includes Genesis HealthCare and the Carlyle / Cerberus / Manor Care of America successor operations. Confidence: HIGH.

Steward Massachusetts spillover. Carney Hospital (Dorchester) and Nashoba Valley Medical Center (Ayer) were sold or closed in August 2024 as part of Steward’s bankruptcy court process, eliminating community ED capacity in two Massachusetts service areas (PESP Steward). Confidence: HIGH.

Section 9. Retail Vertical NAICS Cohort Analysis

The retail PE bankruptcy cohort 2023 through mid-2026 spans NAICS 446110 (pharmacies and drug stores: Rite Aid), NAICS 448140 (family clothing stores: Express, Forever 21), NAICS 451130 (sewing, needlework, and piece goods stores: Joann), NAICS 452319 (all other general merchandise stores: 99 Cents Only Stores, Big Lots), NAICS 452999 (all other general merchandise stores: The Container Store), and NAICS 453998 (all other miscellaneous store retailers: Party City).

99 Cents Only Stores (Ares + CPPIB 2012 $1.6 billion, Chapter 11 April 8 2024). Footprint at filing: 371 stores across California, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada. Employees at filing: 10,864. Approximately $6.3 million in payroll owed at filing. All stores closed by June 3 2024. Liabilities and assets each between $1 billion and $10 billion (Buyouts Insider 99 Cents Only). Confidence: HIGH.

Joann Inc. (Leonard Green 2011 $1.6 billion, first Chapter 11 March 2024, second Chapter 11 January 15 2025, full liquidation February 2025). Pre-final-liquidation footprint: approximately 800 stores and 19,000 employees including 15,600 part-time. Reported debt at January 2025 filing: $615.7 million, with $133 million owed to suppliers and monthly rent obligations of $26 million (Axios Joann liquidation, PESP Leonard Green portfolio). Confidence: HIGH.

Forever 21 (US operating company F21 OpCo LLC). Sponsor: Catalyst Brands (formed January 8 2025 via merger of SPARC Group and JC Penney), with prior SPARC Group ownership through Authentic Brands Group joint venture (Authentic owns brand IP). Second Chapter 11 filing: March 17 2025 (first was 2019). Footprint at filing: approximately 350 US stores. All US stores planned for closure by May 1 2025. International stores and website continued. Layoffs at Catalyst corporate: 5% in February 2025, 9% in March 2025. Driver cited: competition from Shein and Temu (CNBC Forever 21). Confidence: HIGH.

Rite Aid. PE history includes TPG era and Bain Capital advisory roles in earlier debt restructurings. First Chapter 11 filing: October 15 2023. Emerged September 2024 with $2 billion debt reduction, $2.5 billion in new operating financing, and roughly 500 store closures. Second Chapter 11 filing: May 5 2025 (a Chapter 22 filing). At second filing: approximately 1,250 stores remaining (roughly half of the 2,500 stores it operated as of 2023). Corporate office layoffs: more than 1,100 workers at Philadelphia Navy Yard headquarters and central Pennsylvania, beginning June 4 2025 (CNN Rite Aid Chapter 22, Retail Dive Rite Aid Chapter 22). Confidence: HIGH.

Party City. Acquired by Berkshire Partners and Weston Presidio in 2005, then by Thomas H. Lee Partners in 2005 in $2.69 billion recapitalization. Public via IPO 2015, then first Chapter 11 January 2023 and emerged October 2023. Second Chapter 11 filing: December 21 2024. Footprint at second filing: more than 700 company-owned and franchise stores; approximately 12,000 employees. Retail operations wound down by February 28 2025 (CNN Party City). Confidence: HIGH.

Express Inc. (Chapter 11 April 22 2024). WHP Global owned brand rights heading into bankruptcy. Store closures: 95 Express stores plus all UpWest locations beginning April 23 2024. Subsequent sale to a consortium led by WHP Global with participants Simon Property Group and Brookfield Properties. 106 stores closed total in the initial wave. Distribution center layoffs reported in Columbus, Ohio (CNBC Express bankruptcy). Confidence: HIGH.

The Container Store (Chapter 11 December 2024). Leonard Green and Partners historical sponsor. Restructuring proceeding (PESP Leonard Green portfolio). Confidence: MEDIUM on direct PE control at filing date.

Big Lots (Chapter 11 September 9 2024). Nexus Capital Management acted as DIP-stalking horse buyer; the cohort is included for its PE-adjacent reorganization-financing posture and the documented 566 store closings through the wind-down (PESP tracker). Confidence: MEDIUM on PE attribution given DIP-only posture, HIGH on closure count.

Section 10. Restaurant Vertical NAICS Cohort Analysis

The restaurant PE bankruptcy cohort 2023 through mid-2026 spans NAICS 722511 (full-service restaurants: Red Lobster, TGI Fridays) and NAICS 722513 (limited-service restaurants: Rubio’s, BurgerFi, Roti).

Red Lobster (Golden Gate Capital 2014 $2.1 billion, Thai Union controlling stake 2020, Chapter 11 May 19 2024). Footprint at filing: 36,000 workers and roughly 100 restaurant closures announced. Lease obligations at the time of filing: approximately $200 million per year, equal to roughly 10% of revenues, as a direct consequence of the 2014 sale-leaseback Golden Gate executed at acquisition (CNN Red Lobster Thai Union, NBC News Red Lobster). Confidence: HIGH.

TGI Fridays Inc. (TriArtisan Capital Advisors and Sentinel Capital Partners 2014 ~$890 million, TriArtisan acquired Sentinel’s stake October 2019, Chapter 11 November 2 2024). Footprint affected: 39 company-operated US locations. International: roughly 1,012 UK employees lost jobs when 35 UK sites closed in October 2024 (a separate UK-jurisdiction proceeding). Franchise locations across 56 franchisees in 41 countries remained operating (CNBC TGI Fridays). Confidence: HIGH.

Rubio’s Coastal Grill (Mill Road Capital 2010 $91 million, Chapter 11 June 5 2024 second filing since 2020). Pre-filing closures: nearly 50 California locations closed late May 2024. Remaining at filing: 86 locations in CA, AZ, NV. Liabilities up to $500 million. 25,000 creditors. Sold out of bankruptcy in August 2024 for $40 million to The Original Fish Taco LLC, an affiliate of TREW Capital Management Private Credit (NRN Rubio’s). Confidence: HIGH.

BurgerFi (Chapter 11 September 2024). BurgerFi International was a SPAC merger in 2020 (the Opes Acquisition Corp combination); subsequent PE involvement through TREW Capital Management. Assets $50 to $100 million, debt $100 to $500 million. Same-store sales declines: 9% in 2022, 8% in 2023, 13% in Q1 2024. Acquired by TREW in November 2024. 85 BurgerFi locations acquired by Savvy Sliders in December 2024 (QSR BurgerFi). Confidence: HIGH.

Roti Modern Mediterranean (Chapter 11 August 2024). Footprint: 17 locations in Chicago, Minneapolis, and Washington DC. Acquired in February 2025 by Edible Brands (parent of Edible Arrangements), with backing from BroadPeak Capital (Food Republic restaurant Ch 11). Confidence: MEDIUM on prior PE attribution, HIGH on post-filing acquirer.

Section 11. Industrial and Transport Vertical NAICS Cohort Analysis

The industrial / transport PE bankruptcy cohort 2023 through mid-2026 spans NAICS 484122 (general freight trucking long-distance less than truckload: Yellow Corporation) and NAICS 621910 (ambulance services: Air Methods, Global Medical Response / AMR).

Yellow Corporation (Apollo lead debt position, Citadel acquired approximately $500 million of debt during wind-down, Chapter 11 August 6 2023). Peak employment: 30,000 workers, of which 22,000 were Teamsters union members. Pension fund: dispute with the Central States Health and Welfare Fund precipitated final collapse; Yellow failed to pay a $50 million obligation due July 15 2023. Federal exposure: Yellow had received a $700 million COVID-era CARES Act loan from the US Treasury in 2020, of which roughly $737 million in principal and accrued interest was outstanding at the time of bankruptcy filing. The Yellow shutdown produced documented spillover hiring at FedEx Freight, Old Dominion, XPO, Saia, ArcBest, and Estes through Q3 and Q4 2023, with the LTL freight capacity displacement absorbed across the surviving carrier pool (Fortune Yellow, NPR Yellow Corp). Confidence: HIGH on Apollo debt exposure characterization, MEDIUM on the “PE-backed bankruptcy” framing given that Yellow was a publicly listed common-stock issuer at the time of bankruptcy.

Air Methods (American Securities Oct 2017 ~$2.5B, Chapter 11 Oct 24 2023). See Section 8 for healthcare detail; the firm sits at the NAICS 621910 boundary between healthcare and transport. Confidence: HIGH.

Global Medical Response / American Medical Response (KKR-tied 2018 formation $2.4 billion, debt restructuring 2025). ~38,000 employee base. The GMR debt-for-equity workout illustrates the KKR-EMS exposure and parallels the Air Methods regulatory dynamic given No Surprises Act effects on out-of-network EMS billing (PESP tracker). Confidence: MEDIUM.

Section 12. Newspaper and Publishing Vertical NAICS Cohort Analysis

The newspaper PE bankruptcy and distressed-cohort 2023 through mid-2026 spans NAICS 511110 (newspaper publishers). Distinct from healthcare and retail, the newspaper cohort is a continuous secular-decline cohort with PE-affiliated owners accelerating workforce reductions, not a discrete bankruptcy-filing cohort.

Tribune Publishing (Alden Global Capital). Alden completed its takeover of Tribune Publishing in May 2021. Alden’s prior owned-and-operated newsroom employment reductions were documented at more than 75% during the prior decade, approximately twice the industry-average rate. February 2024: Tribune Publishing announced 200 layoffs from the Freedom Center printing plant in Chicago, with plant demolition (the site sold for casino development) (NewsGuild Alden Tribune). Confidence: HIGH.

McClatchy Company (Chatham Asset Management). Chapter 11 filing: February 2020. Acquired by Chatham Asset Management for $312 million in August 2020. Despite initial commitments to maintain employment and union contracts, Chatham executed staged layoffs through 2024, including the July 11 2023 elimination of editorial cartoonists at The Charlotte Observer, The Sacramento Bee, and the Lexington Herald-Leader. In December 2024, Chatham-owned a360media (formerly American Media Inc.) was merged into McClatchy. Confidence: HIGH.

National NAICS 511110 has lost more than 50% of employment since 2005, and Alden Global Capital and Chatham Asset Management ownership are the primary roll-up vehicles in that decline. The QCEW national series for 511110 should be the headline chart in any newspaper PE cohort analysis. Confidence: HIGH on NAICS-level decline, MEDIUM on PE-attribution share due to compositional shift toward digital that pre-dates PE acquisition.

Section 13. Vertical NAICS-Level QCEW Trajectory Reference

This section establishes the QCEW NAICS trajectory targets for the open-source replication described in Section 14. National-level QCEW series for each vertical (downloadable from BLS) are summarized directionally with cohort-specific county pulls required to close the cohort-level question.

NAICS 622110 General Medical and Surgical Hospitals. Primary code for Steward, Prospect, Lifepoint, Steward MA spillover, Steward TX, Steward OH, Steward FL, Steward AZ. National employment grew through 2019, contracted slightly during COVID-19, and partially recovered. PE-concentrated counties to track: Suffolk County MA (Steward Caritas Christi origin), Delaware County PA (Prospect Crozer Health), Bristol County RI (Prospect CharterCARE), Hartford County CT (Prospect Manchester / Rockville / Waterbury), El Paso County TX (Steward Texas operations), San Bernardino County CA (Prospect Southern California operations). Source: QCEW Data Viewer. Confidence: HIGH on national series access, GAP on county-level pulls.

NAICS 623110 Nursing Care Facilities (Skilled Nursing Facilities). Primary code for Genesis HealthCare, ManorCare, Carlyle/Cerberus cohort. National employment in 623110 was approximately 1.46 million in 2019Q4 and dropped sharply during COVID-19, with partial recovery through 2023 and 2024. PE-concentrated counties to track: cluster of CT and PA Genesis counties; CA Cerberus / Carlyle facility counties. NAICS 623110 is the headline series for the Gupta-Howell mortality cohort. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 621112 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners. The behavioral PE roll-up cohort: TPG / Acadia (post-2024 distress signals), Bain / BHG, KKR / Geode Health, Carlyle / Centerstone affiliations. National series is growing, but PE-concentrated MSOs operate counter-cyclically to the aggregate. Confidence: MEDIUM on PE roll-up attribution at the NAICS level.

NAICS 621210 Offices of Dentists. The DSO PE roll-up cohort: Heartland Dental (KKR), Aspen Dental (American Securities + Leonard Green), Smile Brands (Hidden Harbor + AEA), Smile Doctors (Linden Capital), Pacific Dental Services. Confidence: MEDIUM on PE roll-up attribution.

NAICS 621111 Offices of Physicians. Primary code for Cano Health, anesthesiology MSO roll-ups (US Anesthesia Partners / Welsh Carson, North American Partners in Anesthesia / American Securities), radiology roll-ups (Radiology Partners / New Enterprise Associates), dermatology roll-ups (Advanced Dermatology / Harvest Partners). Confidence: MEDIUM on PE roll-up attribution at the NAICS level.

NAICS 621399 Offices of All Other Miscellaneous Health Practitioners. Primary for Envision Healthcare physician staffing. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 621498 All Other Outpatient Care Centers. The dialysis and outpatient infusion cohort: DaVita (public, not PE), Fresenius (public, not PE), US Renal Care (Bain + Summit + Revelstoke), DSI Renal. Confidence: MEDIUM.

NAICS 621910 Ambulance Services. Air Methods, AMR/GMR cohort. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 446110 Pharmacies and Drug Stores. Rite Aid cohort. National series has been in secular decline since 2018 with both PE-tied (Rite Aid) and non-PE-tied (Walgreens, CVS store-closure announcements) drivers. Confidence: HIGH on national decline, MEDIUM on PE-share isolation.

NAICS 448140 Family Clothing Stores. Express, Forever 21 cohort. Sharp 2023 to 2025 contractions concentrated in PE-owned operators. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 451130 Sewing, Needlework, and Piece Goods Stores. Joann cohort. Full liquidation Feb 2025 is the QCEW-recoverable shock. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 452319 All Other General Merchandise Stores. 99 Cents Only, Big Lots. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 453998 All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers. Party City. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 722511 Full-Service Restaurants. Red Lobster, TGI Fridays. National series was the most volatile in the cohort, with sharp 2020 contraction and 2021 to 2024 recovery; PE-acquired chains underperformed the recovery. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 722513 Limited-Service Restaurants. Rubio’s, BurgerFi, Roti. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 484122 General Freight Trucking, Long-Distance, Less Than Truckload. Yellow Corp. Showed the Yellow shock concentrated in Q3-Q4 2023 with redistribution to FedEx Freight, Old Dominion, and XPO in 2024. Confidence: HIGH.

NAICS 511110 Newspaper Publishers. Tribune / Alden, McClatchy / Chatham. National series down more than 50% since 2005. Confidence: HIGH on national decline, MEDIUM on PE-share isolation.

Section 14. The 9-Step Methodology Contribution: Replication Using Only Public BLS QCEW Data

This is the academic hook of the brief. The DHJLM 2019 NBER 26371 paper and the Gupta-Howell-Yannelis 2024 RFS paper both rely on restricted Census LBD microdata available only at FSRDCs under Title 13 confidentiality. A typical FSRDC project takes 6 to 18 months for approval. This puts the DHJLM finding outside the operating window of (a) congressional staff who need to respond to a hearing in 60 days, (b) Reuters and Bloomberg reporters who need to write today, (c) labor union research desks at SEIU, AFT, UFCW, and the Teamsters, and (d) PE-skeptic policy advocates at CEPR, the Roosevelt Institute, the American Economic Liberties Project, and PESP.

The CT Acquisitions contribution: an open-source, fully-public-data replication of the DHJLM finding using only BLS QCEW data combined with named PE acquisition cohorts.

Step 1. Build the master cohort table. PE-backed acquisitions and bankruptcies from public sources: SEC 8-K filings, S-1 registration statements, Form ABS-15G disclosures, US Bankruptcy Court PACER dockets, M&A press releases, and the PESP bankruptcy tracker. Each cohort row carries target firm name, primary establishment NAICS code, primary state and county footprint, acquisition date, acquisition price and structure, PE sponsor, and exit or bankruptcy event date.

Step 2. Pull QCEW employment series. For each cohort row, pull the BLS QCEW employment series at the relevant NAICS-by-county level for the 8 quarters before the acquisition and the 8 quarters after. The 8-and-8 window matches the DHJLM 2-year-window framing. Use the QCEW Data Viewer at data.bls.gov/cew/apps/data_views/data_views.htm or the CSV downloads at www.bls.gov/cew/downloadable-data-files.htm.

Step 3. Build a counterfactual using non-acquired NAICS-by-county series. For each cohort row, identify the 4 to 6 most similar counties on observables (population, NAICS concentration, prior-period employment growth) and use the average of their NAICS series as the control.

Step 4. Compute the difference-in-differences employment effect. At the 2-year mark for each cohort row. Report point estimate, standard error, and 95% confidence interval.

Step 5. Aggregate cohort rows. By vertical (healthcare, retail, restaurant, trucking, publishing) and by deal type (public-to-private, private-to-private, divisional, secondary).

Step 6. Compare to the DHJLM 2019 baseline. Where the QCEW-based replication recovers DHJLM-consistent results, that becomes the academic citation. Where the QCEW-based replication diverges, document the source of divergence (NAICS-county aggregation bias, control selection, cohort composition).

Step 7. Layer in the Gupta-Howell mortality framework. For each Cerberus, Carlyle, Centerbridge, KKR, and Genesis nursing home cohort row, combine the QCEW employment trajectory with CMS Provider of Services data and Medicare beneficiary mortality data to recover a public-data version of the 10% excess-mortality estimate.

Step 8. Publish the replication as an open-data set on a citation-ready static URL. Make every cohort row, every NAICS series, every county control set, and every computed effect downloadable as CSV. Carry a DOI for academic citation. License: CC-BY-4.0.

Step 9. Update quarterly as QCEW releases new data. Typically 5 to 6 month lag. Maintain version history with public changelog.

The result: a public-data replication of DHJLM that is updated continuously with named cohorts, by vertical, with citation-ready URLs. This is what Eileen Appelbaum, Brendan Ballou, and the Senate Budget Committee staff currently cannot do. It is the citation magnet.

Section 15. Documented Gaps and Known Limitations

Three known limitations of QCEW-based replication, each documented and bounded.

GAP 1: QCEW cell suppression. QCEW does not disclose firm-level employment. If a PE-acquired firm is the only firm operating a given NAICS code in a given county, QCEW will suppress that cell to protect the firm. This is the biggest single threat to the replication strategy. Mitigation: identify suppression incidents by comparing state-level totals to county-level reported aggregates; use BDS or LEHD QWI as triangulation sources. Confidence: GAP, with mitigation pathway HIGH.

GAP 2: Establishment vs parent EIN. QCEW is reported by establishment, not by parent firm. A PE roll-up that consolidates 20 dental practices into a single MSO might or might not be reflected in QCEW depending on EIN structure and state UI reporting conventions. Mitigation: cross-reference QCEW data with SEC filings (where available), state corporate registration databases, and CMS Provider of Services data for healthcare cohorts. Confidence: GAP.

GAP 3: QCEW lag of 1 to 2 quarters behind bankruptcy events. Real-time bankruptcy-driven layoff dynamics require WARN Act notice tracking from state labor departments in the interim. Mitigation: maintain a parallel WARN Act tracker by state for the cohort table, layered onto QCEW once available. Confidence: GAP, with WARN Act pathway HIGH.

None of these limitations is fatal. Each is documented and bounded. The replication is operationally feasible at a research-engineer cost of roughly 2 to 3 FTE-months for the initial cohort build and roughly 0.25 FTE-month per quarter for ongoing updates.

Section 16. The Senate Budget Committee Bipartisan Whitehouse-Grassley “Profits Over Patients” Report (January 7 2025)

On January 7 2025, Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (Chair) and Chuck Grassley (Ranking Member) of the Senate Budget Committee released a bipartisan investigation report titled “Profits Over Patients: The Harmful Effects of Private Equity on the U.S. Healthcare System.” The report runs more than 160 pages and covers two named PE-backed hospital case studies: Prospect Medical Holdings (Leonard Green) and Lifepoint Health (Apollo Global Management). The investigation was conducted with full committee subpoena authority and document compulsion across both PE sponsors (Senate Budget Committee Profits Over Patients release).

Key findings from the report.

Prospect Medical Holdings (Leonard Green and Partners 2010 to 2021). The report documents the dividend recapitalization stream from Prospect to Leonard Green and the deferred maintenance, staffing reductions, and quality-of-care declines that followed. Multiple Prospect hospitals were cited by state public health authorities for code violations and quality failures pre-bankruptcy. The Delaware County PA Crozer Health closure eliminated two-thirds of county emergency department capacity post-filing.

Lifepoint Health (Apollo Global Management 2018 to present). The report documents post-take-private staffing reductions and ED closure patterns across the Lifepoint rural hospital footprint. Lifepoint operates more than 60 community hospitals primarily in non-urban markets, where individual hospital closures eliminate not just employment but the only ED for tens of thousands of residents.

Policy recommendations. The report endorses HHS / DOJ / FTC enforcement coordination on PE roll-up dynamics in healthcare, the expansion of CMS ownership transparency requirements, and the enactment of Senator Markey’s Health Over Wealth Act (Markey Health Over Wealth Act) and Senator Warren’s Corporate Crimes Against Health Care Act of 2024 (Warren Markey Corporate Crimes Act).

The bipartisan character of the Whitehouse-Grassley report is the political-economy headline. PE in healthcare is no longer a partisan issue; it is one of a small number of contemporary economic-policy topics on which a progressive Senator and a senior Republican Senator coauthored a 160-page document built around the DHJLM and Gupta-Howell academic baseline. Confidence: HIGH.

Section 17. Counter-Citations and Pro-PE Rebuttal Data

A defensible citation-magnet brief engages the counter-evidence. The pro-PE side of the academic debate has three pillars.

Pillar 1: Bain Capital research and EY-AIC commissioned research. Per the EY 2024 report commissioned by the American Investment Council, the US private equity sector directly employed 13.3 million workers in 2024 (up from 12 million in 2022), with the average PE-backed company employee earning $85,000 in wages and benefits. PE-backed companies operate at more than 21,000 US businesses. The sector contributed $2 trillion to GDP in 2024 (~7% of total US GDP). PE-suppliers and consumer-spending multipliers supported an additional 20.1 million workers and added $2.7 trillion to US GDP. More than 85% of PE investment dollars by deal count went to firms with fewer than 500 employees, and the median PE-backed business had 72 employees. AIC’s claim, in effect: PE is a small-business growth engine (EY-AIC 2024 economic contribution report, AIC 2024 year in review). Confidence: MEDIUM (commissioned research; methodology proprietary).

Pillar 2: Methodological critique of DHJLM and follow-on academic studies. The pro-PE response argues that PE deals are concentrated in declining industries (retail, newspapers, certain manufacturing subsectors) where the counterfactual is industry-wide secular decline, not stable employment. DHJLM correct for this in the Journal of Finance publication by matching to controls within industry-by-region cells. The pro-PE counter-argument is that matching at the industry level under-corrects for the additional within-industry selection PE sponsors make. Confidence: MEDIUM.

Pillar 3: The PE-as-creative-destruction argument. Joseph Schumpeter framing: PE acquisitions accelerate the reallocation of labor and capital from less-productive to more-productive uses. The DHJLM finding of approximately 7.5% productivity gains at PE targets supports this framing. Confidence: MEDIUM.

The honest engagement. None of the pro-PE pillars rebut the public-to-private buyout employment finding, which is a 12% employment contraction at the 2-year mark relative to controls. None rebut the Gupta-Howell mortality finding for nursing homes. None rebut the named bankruptcy cohort losses tabulated in Section 7. The pro-PE pillars rebut a different question: aggregate employment across all PE deals. The CT Acquisitions cohort study should engage the disaggregated question (which deals, which verticals, which sponsors, which 2-year window) rather than the aggregated question.

Section 18. 2024 through 2028 Forward-Looking Cohorts to Track

The named bankruptcies in Section 7 are the highest-visibility cohort to date. The forward-looking cohort study will track several additional categories where the 2-year-post-acquisition employment effect is still in formation as of mid-2026.

Recent take-private healthcare deals to watch. UnitedHealth Group / Amedisys (closed August 7 to 14 2025 at $3.3 billion) with required divestitures of 164 home-health and hospice locations across 19 states to Pennant Group ($146.5 million, 54 locations) and BrightSpring Health Services ($239 million, 107 locations), DOJ final judgment December 2025. Enhabit / Kinderhook Industries take-private (completed May 18 2026 at $1.1 billion / $13.80 per share / approximately 10.2x EBITDA on $108 million EBITDA / $1.06 billion revenue). HomeWell Care Services / Main Post Partners (closed January 21 2026, 138 agencies in 37 states). Synergy HomeCare / Levine Leichtman Capital Partners (closed January 21 2025). Three Oaks Hospice / Martis Capital (October 2024 at $150 million). TEAM Services Group / General Atlantic (April 2026 at approximately $3 billion / ~10x EBITDA). Bristol Hospice / Webster Equity (active sale process at $140 million EBITDA with $1 billion+ sponsor bids). Confidence: HIGH.

Recent take-private waste and environmental services. Stericycle / WM Healthcare Solutions (closed November 4 2024 at $7.2 billion EV). Frontier Waste / GFL Environmental (closed April 1 2026 at $900 million). Coastal Waste and Recycling / Macquarie (June 2023 at $900 million EV). Ecowaste Solutions formation Live Oak + CARDS / Kinderhook (January 2026). Apex Waste Solutions / Kinderhook (November 2023). TXP Environmental / NMS Capital (April 2023). Confidence: HIGH.

Recent take-private security integration and janitorial. Allied Universal / Warburg Pincus + CDPQ + J. Safra (ongoing through 2024 to 2026). Diversified Maintenance / Allied Universal (March 1 2025). Xanitos / Bessemer Investors (January 1 2026). KBS / KKR + Ares + BlackRock CIA consortium (March 25 2024). Pritchard Industries / Littlejohn (December 2024). Confidence: HIGH.

Recent take-private snow removal and grounds. BrightView Holdings (still NYSE: BV as of mid-2026, with KKR exiting via 2025 secondary offerings; One Rock Capital Partners $500 million convertible preferred since August 27 2023). Schill Grounds Management / TruArc Partners (since January 13 2026). U.S. Lawns / Riverside Company / EverSmith Brands (since January 12 2024). Yellowstone Landscape / Harvest Partners (since November 2019, plus Neuberger Berman Capital Solutions since December 2024). Confidence: HIGH.

Each of these cohorts will produce a 2-year-post-acquisition employment data point through 2026, 2027, and 2028 that should be tracked against the DHJLM baseline.

Comparison cohort: PE-backed franchise systems vs publicly-traded comparison franchise systems. This is the natural counterfactual that AIC and EY rebuttal pieces refuse to engage. The CT Acquisitions cohort study should run BrightView, BrightSpring Health Services, Authority Brands (Apax / Service Brands International), Vermana, Empower Brands / MidOcean (JAN-PRO), and U.S. Lawns / EverSmith employment trajectories against publicly-traded comparison franchise systems including ABM Industries (NYSE: ABM), Cintas Corp (NASDAQ: CTAS), Vestis Corp (NYSE: VSTS, spun from Aramark October 2 2023), and Rollins Inc (NYSE: ROL). The directional finding from the academic literature is that PE-backed franchise systems exhibit higher employment turnover and more aggressive workforce restructuring than publicly-traded comparisons. Confidence: MEDIUM.

Region-aware comparison cohort: Snow Belt vs Sun Belt snow removal. A 2026 vertical-build conducted by CT Acquisitions identified that PE-rollup activity in snow-removal services is structurally split by climate region, with 34 Snow Belt states, 5 Mixed states, and 12 Sun Belt Residual states presenting distinct PE underwriting frameworks and employment dynamics. The forward cohort study should track BrightView, Yellowstone, Mainscape, Schill, and Outworx Tovar in each region. Confidence: HIGH.

Section 19. Six Contrarian Findings (Counter-Takes for Journalism Cites)

The brief carries six contrarian findings that complicate the simple “PE kills jobs” narrative and that any defensible cohort study must acknowledge.

Contrarian Finding 1: The private-to-private buyout employment effect is positive and large. DHJLM 2019 documents roughly 15% two-year employment expansion at privately held targets acquired by PE sponsors. This is the majority of PE deals by count. The CT Acquisitions cohort study must engage this finding rather than ignore it. Confidence: HIGH.

Contrarian Finding 2: Productivity rises at PE-acquired firms by approximately 7.5% over two years. The DHJLM productivity finding holds consistently across deal types. This supports a Schumpeterian creative-destruction reading of PE that the labor-side critique should engage rather than wave away. Confidence: HIGH.

Contrarian Finding 3: The Yellow Corporation bankruptcy is not a pure PE-buyout case. Yellow Corporation was a publicly listed common-stock issuer at the time of bankruptcy. Apollo’s exposure was through debt positions, not through a sponsor-owned equity stake. Citadel acquired Apollo’s positions during the wind-down. The “30,000 PE-backed job losses” framing is widely used in labor reporting but glosses over the equity-vs-debt distinction. Confidence: MEDIUM.

Contrarian Finding 4: Rite Aid is not a clean PE cohort. Rite Aid was publicly traded for nearly its entire operating history, with TPG and Bain Capital advisory roles in earlier debt restructurings. The Chapter 22 in May 2025 is a PE-adjacent rather than PE-driven event. Confidence: MEDIUM.

Contrarian Finding 5: Forever 21 is not a PE cohort at all by mid-2025. Catalyst Brands (Sparc + JC Penney merger January 8 2025) and Authentic Brands hold the relevant ownership positions. The March 2025 Chapter 11 reflects a brand-licensing structure failure more than a buyout-financing failure. Confidence: HIGH.

Contrarian Finding 6: The Centerbridge / Genesis HealthCare attribution is partly retrospective. Centerbridge Partners had a substantial stake in the 2007 era and through the 2011 going-private. By 2021, ReGen Healthcare held 93% of the equity. Yet labor-side and academic commentary continues to attribute Genesis bankruptcy to “Centerbridge PE exposure” because Centerbridge was the visible name during the debt-financed transformation period. The 2025 cohort attribution requires unbundling Centerbridge era from ReGen era. Confidence: MEDIUM.

These contrarian findings sharpen rather than blunt the underlying cohort argument. The named PE-backed bankruptcy losses tabulated in Section 7 stand. The DHJLM and Gupta-Howell academic baselines stand. The contrarian findings serve to specify which framing of “PE and jobs” the underlying data supports: heterogeneity by deal type, by vertical, by sponsor, by 2-year window.

Section 20. Policy Implications for the Senate HELP / Finance / Budget Committees, State AGs, and the Health Over Wealth Act

The CT Acquisitions cohort study has direct policy traction across four legislative vehicles and three enforcement venues.

Senate HELP Committee Steward investigation. Chair Bernie Sanders convened a bipartisan hearing on Steward Health Care with a 20 to 1 committee vote in July 2024 and a 16 to 4 subpoena vote for CEO Ralph de la Torre (Senate HELP Committee Steward release). The CT Acquisitions cohort study Section 8 Steward subsection provides the Cerberus hold-period dividend extraction estimate, the MPT REIT landlord rent structure, and the 30,000-worker baseline. Confidence: HIGH on relevance.

Senate Budget Committee Profits Over Patients report. The bipartisan Whitehouse-Grassley investigation provides the framework for ongoing oversight of Lifepoint and other Apollo healthcare exposures (Senate Budget Profits Over Patients). Confidence: HIGH.

Senator Warren / Senator Markey Health Over Wealth Act and Corporate Crimes Against Health Care Act of 2024. Both bills would impose new transparency and accountability requirements on PE-acquired healthcare operators (Health Over Wealth Act, Corporate Crimes Against Health Care Act). The CT Acquisitions cohort study supplies the empirical baseline. Confidence: HIGH.

State Attorney General enforcement. The Connecticut AG Statement of Interest in the Prospect Medical bankruptcy is the model action: a state AG asserting standing in a federal bankruptcy court on consumer-protection and patient-safety grounds (CT AG Prospect Medical SOI). The CT Acquisitions State AG enforcement tracker (also Wave 10) catalogs similar actions across multiple states. Confidence: HIGH.

HHS / CMS ownership-transparency rulemaking. CMS has expanded SNF ownership-transparency requirements in 2024 and 2025. The CT Acquisitions cohort study Section 13 NAICS 623110 series and Section 8 Genesis HealthCare subsection feed directly into rulemaking comments. Confidence: HIGH.

DOJ Antitrust Division roll-up scrutiny. The post-Ballou framework for federal antitrust scrutiny of PE roll-ups remains the central enforcement gap. The CT Acquisitions cohort study by vertical, with named sponsors and 2-year windows, supplies the DOJ-comment record. Confidence: HIGH.

FTC merger investigation. The FTC under Lina Khan (2021 to 2024) pursued PE roll-up scrutiny under the Section 7 framework. The 2025 to 2028 outlook depends on the Trump FTC posture. The cohort study remains relevant under any administration as the documentary record. Confidence: MEDIUM.

Section 21. Limitations

The brief acknowledges three categories of limitation beyond the QCEW-specific gaps documented in Section 15.

Limitation 1: Selection bias in the named cohort. The 30-plus named PE-backed bankruptcies in Section 7 are the visible distress cohort. PE deals that produced employment gains, productivity gains, or quiet exits at par are under-represented in the bankruptcy tracker. The cohort study should be paired with a positive-cohort dataset for symmetry. Confidence: HIGH on the asymmetry, MEDIUM on the magnitude.

Limitation 2: Attribution complexity in multi-sponsor histories. Many cohort firms passed through multiple PE sponsors during the relevant 2-year and 5-year windows. Genesis HealthCare (Centerbridge era then ReGen), Rite Aid (TPG era then Bain advisory then public), Party City (Berkshire then TH Lee then 2023 first-lien lenders), Forever 21 (Sparc then Catalyst) all complicate the simple “PE sponsor X is responsible for the bankruptcy at firm Y” framing. Confidence: HIGH.

Limitation 3: Macro-cycle vs PE-specific effect identification. The 2024 to 2026 bankruptcy wave coincides with post-pandemic interest-rate normalization, structural retail decline, healthcare reimbursement pressure (No Surprises Act), and Medicare Advantage risk-adjustment overhaul. Isolating the PE-specific contribution from the macro contribution requires the DHJLM matching framework, which the QCEW replication path can approximate but not perfectly recover. Confidence: HIGH.

None of these limitations vitiates the named cohort. The brief lays out the documented record. Future iterations of the cohort study will narrow each limitation through better matching, longer panels, and more granular firm-level data triangulation.

Section 22. Related CT Acquisitions Research

This brief is one of three CT Acquisitions Wave 10 cite-bait pivot trackers. The other two are listed below, alongside the broader CT healthcare PE tracker series.

• CT Acquisitions Platform Map (Wave 10): the visual roll-up of PE-backed platform companies across healthcare, restaurants, retail, services, and industrial verticals.
• CT Acquisitions State AG Enforcement Tracker (Wave 10): catalog of state attorney general actions, statements of interest, and enforcement proceedings touching PE-acquired operators.
• CT Acquisitions PE Failure Tracker (Wave 10): documented PE-backed bankruptcies, dividend-recap-to-collapse case studies, and continuation-vehicle distress signals.
• CT Acquisitions Healthcare PE Trackers: home-health, hospice, nursing home, dialysis, dental, dermatology, behavioral health, mental health, autism services, EMS, hospital, MSO, and ASC platform trackers covering 2024 to 2026 deal flow.
• CT Acquisitions Tier-A Vertical Builds: snow removal, janitorial, waste hauling, home health, security integration vertical builds completed June 2026 with state-by-state PE platform attribution.

Section 23. Source URL List

Primary research papers

• Davis, Haltiwanger, Handley, Lipsius, Lerner, Miranda. “The (Heterogeneous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts.” NBER WP 26371 (2019, rev. April 2024). www.nber.org/papers/w26371
• Davis, Haltiwanger, Jarmin, Lerner, Miranda. “Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity.” American Economic Review 104(12): 3956 to 3990 (2014). www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.12.3956
• Davis, Haltiwanger, Jarmin, Lerner, Miranda. “Private Equity and Employment.” NBER WP 17399 (2011). www.nber.org/papers/w17399
• Gupta, Howell, Yannelis, Gupta. “Owner Incentives and Performance in Healthcare: Private Equity Investment in Nursing Homes.” NBER WP 28474 (2021), RFS 37(4): 1029 to 1077 (2024). www.nber.org/papers/w28474
• Appelbaum and Batt. Private Equity at Work: When Wall Street Manages Main Street. Russell Sage Foundation (2014). www.russellsage.org/publications/book/private-equity-work
• Appelbaum and Batt. “Private Equity Buyouts in Healthcare: Who Wins, Who Loses?” CEPR WP 118 (2020). cepr.net WP 118
• Ballou. Plunder: Private Equity’s Plan to Pillage America. PublicAffairs (2023). www.plunderthebook.com

BLS and Census data references

• BLS QCEW overview. www.bls.gov/cew/overview.htm
• BLS QCEW data download. www.bls.gov/cew/downloadable-data-files.htm
• BLS QCEW Data Viewer. data.bls.gov/cew/apps/data_views/data_views.htm
• BLS QCEW NAICS hierarchy crosswalk. www.bls.gov/cew/classifications/industry/qcew-naics-hierarchy-crosswalk.htm
• Census LBD. www.census.gov/programs-surveys/ces/data/restricted-use-data/longitudinal-business-database.html
• Census BDS. www.census.gov/programs-surveys/bds
• BLS LEHD QWI. qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov

Congressional and government investigations

• Senate Budget Committee Whitehouse-Grassley Profits Over Patients (Jan 7 2025). budget.senate.gov
• Senate HELP Committee Steward investigation. help.senate.gov Steward
• Sen. Warren letter on Genesis HealthCare bankruptcy. Warren Genesis letter
• Sens. Warren and Markey Corporate Crimes Against Health Care Act of 2024. Corporate Crimes Act
• Sen. Markey Health Over Wealth Act. Markey Health Over Wealth Act
• Connecticut AG Statement of Interest in Prospect Medical bankruptcy. CT AG Prospect SOI

PESP cohort tracker

• PESP Private Equity Bankruptcy Tracker. pestakeholder.org bankruptcy tracker
• PESP 65% of billion-dollar bankruptcies 2024. PESP 2024 65%
• PESP 2024 PE Bankruptcies. PESP 2024 report
• PESP Q1 2025 bankruptcies. PESP Q1 2025
• PESP majority of 2025 bankruptcies. PESP 2025
• PESP Pillaging of Steward Health Care. PESP Steward

Cohort-specific primary sources

• Cano Health (STAT News). STAT
• Envision Healthcare (PESP). PESP
• Senate HSGAC KKR-Envision file. HSGAC
• Air Methods (AIN). AIN
• Prospect Medical (Healthcare Dive). Healthcare Dive
• Prospect Medical (The American Prospect). Prospect
• Genesis HealthCare (PESP). PESP
• Red Lobster (CNN). CNN
• Red Lobster (NBC News). NBC News
• 99 Cents Only (Buyouts Insider). Buyouts Insider
• Joann (Axios). Axios
• Joann (PESP). PESP
• TGI Fridays (CNBC). CNBC
• Rubio’s (NRN). NRN
• BurgerFi (QSR). QSR
• Rite Aid Chapter 22 (CNN). CNN
• Rite Aid Chapter 22 (Retail Dive). Retail Dive
• Express (CNBC). CNBC
• Party City (CBS). CBS News
• Party City (CNN). CNN
• Forever 21 (CNBC). CNBC
• Yellow Corp (Fortune). Fortune
• Yellow Corp (NPR). NPR
• Tribune Publishing / Alden (NewsGuild). NewsGuild

Patient-outcomes academic literature

• Annals of Internal Medicine on PE hospital staffing. acpjournals.org
• JAMA / Fierce Healthcare on adverse events at PE-acquired hospitals. Fierce Healthcare
• Harvard Medical School ER mortality. HMS
• California Health Care Foundation prevalence and impact. CHCF

Pro-PE rebuttal sources

• AIC 2024 year in review. AIC
• EY-AIC 2024 economic contribution. EY-AIC
• AIC research index. AIC research

Treasury and financial-system risk references

• OFR working papers. OFR working papers
• OFR 2024 annual report. OFR 2024

Section 24. Frequently Asked Questions

Related research: for SBA 7(a) FY2025 $37.3B total / $8.29B acquisition segment; Live Oak Bank NYSE: LOB #1 at $2.8B / 2,280 loans +44% YoY; Newtek #2 at $2.0B+; SOP 50 10 8 effective June 1 2025 tightened seller note + partial COO requirements; acquisition default 1.93% vs 2.71% non-acquisition, see the 2024-2026 SBA 7(a) Acquisition Lender Performance Rankings.

Related research: for $40B+ combined PE transaction value (PSA/NSA $10.5B March 16 2026 = largest self-storage transaction in history; Sun/Safe Harbor $5.65B April 30 2025 to Blackstone Infrastructure; LCS-Vi merger May 1 2026 = 130 communities; Sonida-CNL $1.8B Nov 5 2025; NIC MAP Q1 2026 = 89.5% senior occupancy 19th consecutive quarter; Asset Living = Roark Capital NOT Cardinal), see the 2024-2026 Specialty Property Management PE Roll-Up Tracker (Student + Senior + MHP + Self-Storage).

Related research: for Sub-$133.9M HSR-2026-threshold PE M&A 2024-2026 (1,973 FY24 reportable filings vs 621 healthcare-only PE add-ons per PESP = 10x+ unreported ratio; Apex ~60/yr + VetCor 100+/yr + SPS PoolCare 191 cumulative + Heartland Dental continuous; Welsh Carson May 13 2025 first sponsor-level prior-approval; Chamber v. FTC Feb 12 2026 vacated 2024 HSR Form Final Rule), see the 2024-2026 PE HSR Threshold Avoidance Database.

Related research: for 17 named US PE sponsors with 3+ platforms in same vertical (Welsh Carson 8 healthcare platforms with USAP 19.99% cap May 12 2025 = first sponsor-level prior-approval remedy; Linden 7; KKR 6; Carlyle 4-MGA NSM+Hilb+Trucordia+Vantage), 10 vertical heat maps, and the state AG patchwork (CA SB 351 + OR SB 951 + WA HB 2548) as the new pre-merger notification regime, see the 2024-2026 PE Sponsor-by-Vertical Concentration Heat Map.

Related research: for 200+ named US + EU + Asia SFOs with 60+ named direct PE deals 2024-2026 (Mars-Kellanova $35.9B Aug 2024, Ellison-Paramount $8B close Aug 7 2025, Hinduja-Reliance Capital INR 9,650cr March 18 2025, Pinault-CAA $7B 2023-24, PPC IV $3.4B Aug 2025 final close, Reuben-W South Beach $425M Oct 2024, Crown-Rockefeller Center $3.5B Nov 2024) plus the JAB BBB downgrade + INEOS + Artémis stress counter-narrative, see the 2024-2026 Top 200 Single Family Office Direct PE Investment Tracker.

Related research: for every US state AG filing + notification law on healthcare PE 2024-2026 (CA SB 351 effective Jan 1 2026 NOT vetoed AB 3129; OR SB 951 NOT failed HB 4130; IN SEA 9; WA HB 2548 = first US sale-leaseback pre-notify statute; MA H 5159; Walgreens/Sycamore Aug 2025), see the 2024-2026 State AG and Legislature Healthcare PE Enforcement Tracker.

Related research: for 31+ named PE take-private failures, withdrawals, re-cuts, forced-closes, and in-hold Ch11s (KKR/Envision $10B wipeout, Cerberus/Steward $3.4B clawback Nov 2025, Vista/Citrix $6.5B hung debt, Twitter forced-close template, TEGNA regblock template, URI/H&E walk template), see the 2020-2026 PE Take-Private Failure Tracker.

Section 25. About the Author

CT Acquisitions Research Desk maintains continuously updated trackers of private equity activity across US contractor verticals (HVAC, plumbing, electrical, landscaping, roofing, restoration, snow removal, security integration, janitorial, waste hauling), healthcare platforms (home health, hospice, nursing homes, dialysis, dental, dermatology, mental health, behavioral health, EMS), and PE-backed bankruptcy events. Research methodology centers on public-source primary documents (SEC filings, US Bankruptcy Court PACER dockets, state UI reporting, CMS Provider of Services data, state professional licensing boards) cross-referenced with PESP, CEPR, NBER, and peer-reviewed academic literature. All numeric and dated claims carry inline source URLs. The desk publishes for an audience of policy researchers, congressional staff, academic labor economists, and healthcare reporters. Public contact for academic and journalist circulation is available at the CT Acquisitions site.

Last updated: June 21, 2026.