US Small Business Owner Succession Statistics 2026: The Silver Tsunami by the Numbers

By Christoph Totter, Managing Partner, CT Acquisitions. Last verified: July 2026. Next review: January 2027.

Key statistics at a glance

Statistic	Figure	Source	Confidence
US business owners aged 55 or older	52.3%	US Census Bureau, ABS 2022	Verified
Owners aged 55 to 64	29.5%	US Census Bureau, ABS 2022	Verified
Owners aged 65 or older	22.8%	US Census Bureau, ABS 2022	Verified
Baby boomer share of small business owners (2026)	~32%	Guidant Financial, 2026 survey	Single-source
Gen X share of small business owners (2026)	~44%	Guidant Financial, 2026 survey	Single-source
SMBs facing ownership transition by 2035	~6 million	McKinsey, Feb 2026	Directional
Viable for sale or employee ownership	>1 million	McKinsey, Feb 2026	Directional
Enterprise value at stake	~$5 trillion	McKinsey, Feb 2026	Directional
Annual SMB market exits (2022)	~510,000	McKinsey, Feb 2026	Directional
Exits occurring via closure	92%	McKinsey, Feb 2026	Directional
Exits completed as a sale	5%	McKinsey, Feb 2026	Directional
Jobs that successful transitions could preserve	up to 12 million	McKinsey, Feb 2026	Directional
US employer firms owned by 55+ owners	~2.9 million	Project Equity	Single-source
Workers at those firms	~32.1 million	Project Equity	Single-source
Owners with a documented exit plan	32%	Exit Planning Institute, 2023	Directional
Owners with NO formal personal post-exit plan	60%	Exit Planning Institute, 2023	Single-source
Listed businesses that fail to transact	~80%	Exit Planning Institute, 2023-2025	Directional
Employer-owners planning to eventually sell/transfer	74%	Gallup, 2025	Single-source
Small businesses as share of all US firms	99.9%	SBA Office of Advocacy, 2025	Verified
Small business share of private-sector employment	~45.9%	SBA Office of Advocacy, 2025	Verified
Small business share of US GDP	43.5%	SBA Office of Advocacy	Verified
CT-reconciled US employer businesses with owner 55+	~45-50%	CT Acquisitions (reconciled)	CT-reconciled
CT-reconciled SMB ownership transitions 2026-2035	~2.3M-6M	CT Acquisitions (reconciled)	CT-reconciled

How many US small business owners are near retirement age?

More than half of US business owners are already at or past traditional retirement age.

52.3%: of US business owners are aged 55 or older. (US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey, 2022, via CT Acquisitions) [Verified]

29.5%: of US business owners are aged 55 to 64. (US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey, 2022) [Verified]

22.8%: of US business owners are aged 65 or older, a cohort already past normal retirement age and holding on. (US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey, 2022) [Verified]

~32%: of US small business owners are baby boomers as of the 2026 survey year, with Gen X the largest cohort at about 44% and millennials at about 22%. (Guidant Financial, 2026 Small Business Trends survey, n=845) [Single-source]

~2.9 million: US employer firms are owned by someone aged 55 or older, and those firms employ roughly 32.1 million workers. (Project Equity) [Single-source]

How many businesses will actually change hands, and by when?

McKinsey projects about 6 million US small and midsize businesses will face an ownership transition by 2035, though only a fraction are viable sale candidates.

~6 million: US small and midsize businesses are expected to face an ownership transition by 2035 as baby boomers retire. (McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, February 2026) [Directional]

>1 million: of those firms are viable candidates for sale or employee ownership, representing the transactable core of the wave. (McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, February 2026) [Directional]

~510,000: US small and midsize businesses exited the market in 2022, the baseline year McKinsey uses to model the coming acceleration. (McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, February 2026) [Directional]

92%: of SMB market exits occur through closure rather than transfer, versus just 5% completed as a sale and 3% transferred to a new owner. (McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, February 2026) [Directional]

74%: of US employer-business owners say they plan to sell or transfer ownership of their business as they think about retirement. (Gallup, 2025) [Single-source]

~2.3 million to 6 million: is CT Acquisitions’ reconciled range for US SMB ownership transitions between 2026 and 2035. The low anchor reflects the transactable and family-transfer subset (roughly consistent with the ~1 million viable-for-sale figure scaled to a decade of realistic transaction volume plus family transfers); the high anchor is McKinsey’s full ~6 million “will face a transition” count, which includes closures. Headline claims of “~12 million” conflate the US wave with global figures or double-count owners plus firms, and should be avoided. (CT Acquisitions, reconciled from McKinsey 2026; method note below) [CT-reconciled]

How much business value is at stake?

McKinsey estimates about $5 trillion in enterprise value is tied to the roughly 1 million businesses viable for sale.

~$5 trillion: in enterprise value is attached to the more than 1 million US SMBs viable for sale during the transition wave. (McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, February 2026, via CT Acquisitions) [Directional]

up to 12 million: jobs could be kept in place if these ownership transitions succeed rather than end in closure. (McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, February 2026) [Directional]

99.9%: of US businesses are small businesses, which underlines why the value at stake is a whole-economy issue, not a niche one. (US SBA Office of Advocacy, 2025) [Verified]

43.5%: of US GDP is generated by small businesses, and they account for about 45.9% of private-sector employment. (US SBA Office of Advocacy, 2025) [Verified]

Note on the “$5T versus $10T” split: the $5 trillion figure is McKinsey’s enterprise value for the sale-viable subset only. Larger “$10 trillion” headlines typically fold in owner home equity, retirement accounts, and non-transactable business value, so they measure household wealth transfer, not business enterprise value. We cite the conservative $5 trillion enterprise-value figure. (CT Acquisitions method note) [CT-reconciled]

How many owners have a succession or exit plan? The readiness gap

Only about a third of owners have a documented exit plan, and roughly 80% of businesses that do list fail to sell.

32%: of business owners have a documented exit plan, meaning about two-thirds have no formal, written plan for the largest financial event of their lives. (Exit Planning Institute, 2023 National State of Owner Readiness) [Directional]

60%: of owners have no formal personal plan for what comes after the business transitions. (Exit Planning Institute, 2023) [Single-source]

~80%: of privately held businesses listed for sale fail to transact, most often because of owner dependency, poor preparation, or a valuation gap. (Exit Planning Institute, 2023-2025) [Directional]

~35%: of unsuccessful business sales trace to a pricing or valuation disconnect, the single most common deal-killer. (Exit Planning Institute, 2025) [Single-source]

~55-68%: is CT Acquisitions’ reconciled “readiness gap”: the share of US owners with no formal, documented succession or exit plan. Project Equity references roughly 54% having a succession plan (implying ~46% without); EPI references only 32% with a documented exit plan (implying ~68% without). The two disagree because a loose “succession plan” is a lower bar than a documented, advisor-reviewed exit plan. We report the gap as a 55-68% band and cite the stricter EPI definition when the claim is about deal-ready planning. (CT Acquisitions, reconciled from Project Equity and EPI; method note below) [CT-reconciled]

Home services and trades: the succession wave in our sector

Trades and home-services businesses skew older-owned and owner-operated, which puts them at the center of the succession wave and makes them prime consolidation targets.

92%: of SMB exits ending in closure is especially costly in home services, where an owner-operator with no second-tier management and no documented plan is exactly the closure-risk profile the data flags. (McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, February 2026, via CT Acquisitions) [Directional]

~2.9 million: employer firms owned by 55+ owners include a heavy concentration of the trades (HVAC, plumbing, electrical, roofing, landscaping), the exact fragmented sectors private equity and search funds are consolidating. (Project Equity, via CT Acquisitions) [Single-source]

For the sale-viable subset that our buyers actually pursue, see our target-supply thesis in fragmented industries ripe for consolidation and the buyer side in the 2026 lower middle market buyer demand report. For who the acquirers are, see who buys home services companies; for the seller path, see how to sell a home services business to PE; and for what these businesses are worth, see home services business valuation.

Where the numbers disagree, and how to cite them correctly

The three most-cited conflicts are the boomer ownership share, the transition volume, and the value at stake. Each disagreement comes from a different denominator, not from bad data.

Boomer ownership share (32% vs 40% vs 52.3%): these measure different things. Guidant’s ~32% is the boomer generational share of surveyed owners (a birth-cohort measure). Legacy “~40%” figures are older generational estimates. The Census “52.3%” is not a boomer measure at all; it is the share of owners aged 55 or older, which spans late Gen X, boomers, and the silent generation. Cite 52.3% for “55 and older,” and cite ~32% for “baby boomer generation.” (CT Acquisitions method note) [CT-reconciled]

CT-reconciled “share of US employer businesses with owner 55+”: ~45-50%. Method note: the Census 52.3% figure covers ALL business owners (employer plus nonemployer/solo). Employer firms skew slightly younger than solo operators because running a payroll correlates with mid-career ownership, so the employer-only 55+ share lands a few points below the all-owner 52.3%. We report the employer-specific figure as a ~45-50% band and always state whether a “55+” number is employer-only or all-owners. (CT Acquisitions, reconciled from Census ABS and Project Equity) [CT-reconciled]

Transition volume (2.3-3M vs ~6M vs ~12M): the ~6 million is McKinsey’s count of US SMBs that will FACE a transition by 2035 (including closures). Lower 2.3-3M figures count only realistic sales plus family transfers over the period. The ~12 million headline is not a US enterprise figure; it conflates global counts or double-counts owners and firms. Cite ~6 million for “will face a transition” and the ~1 million viable-for-sale figure for “will actually sell.” (CT Acquisitions method note) [CT-reconciled]

Value at stake ($5T vs $10T): $5 trillion is McKinsey’s enterprise value for the sale-viable subset. $10 trillion headlines fold in owner home equity and retirement savings, making them household-wealth-transfer figures, not business enterprise value. Cite $5 trillion for business value. (CT Acquisitions method note) [CT-reconciled]

For the full national narrative behind these numbers, see our full national research report. For state-by-state and sector-by-sector projections, see the succession cliff report. For international context, see the European equivalent and the UK equivalent.

Frequently asked questions

What percentage of US business owners are near retirement age?

52.3% of US business owners are aged 55 or older, with 29.5% aged 55 to 64 and 22.8% aged 65 or older, according to the US Census Bureau Annual Business Survey (2022).

How many small businesses will change hands by 2035?

About 6 million US small and midsize businesses will face an ownership transition by 2035, of which more than 1 million are viable candidates for sale or employee ownership, per the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility (February 2026).

How much is the small business succession wave worth?

Roughly $5 trillion in enterprise value is attached to the more than 1 million US small and midsize businesses viable for sale during the transition, according to McKinsey (February 2026).

What share of business owners have a succession plan?

Only 32% of business owners have a documented exit plan, meaning about two-thirds have no formal written plan, according to the Exit Planning Institute (2023 National State of Owner Readiness).

What percentage of businesses listed for sale actually sell?

About 80% of privately held businesses listed for sale fail to transact, most often due to owner dependency, weak preparation, or a valuation gap, per the Exit Planning Institute (2023-2025).

What percentage of small business exits end in closure rather than sale?

92% of US small and midsize business exits occur through closure, while only 5% are completed as a sale and 3% are transferred to a new owner, according to McKinsey (February 2026).

Are baby boomers still the largest group of business owners?

No. As of 2026, Gen X is the largest cohort at about 44% of small business owners, with baby boomers at about 32% and millennials at about 22%, per Guidant Financial’s 2026 survey. Boomers remain the oldest and most exit-ready group.

How many jobs are at stake in the succession wave?

Up to 12 million US jobs could be preserved if ownership transitions succeed rather than end in closure, according to McKinsey (February 2026).

Methodology and limitations

Every figure on this page traces to a named source retrieved and verified in July 2026. Sources span federal data (US Census Bureau Annual Business Survey; US SBA Office of Advocacy), a peer-reviewed-grade consultancy analysis (McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, February 2026), and specialist surveys (Exit Planning Institute, Gallup, Guidant Financial, Project Equity). Confidence is tagged per line: [Verified] means two or more primary sources agree; [Directional] means one primary source; [Single-source] means one source only; [CT-reconciled] means CT Acquisitions harmonized conflicting figures with an explicit denominator and method note.

Limitations. The Census ABS age breakdown reflects the 2022 reference year (the most recent released age distribution at time of writing); newer 2023-reference data exists but does not yet publish a directly comparable 55+ employer-only split. Guidant’s survey (n=845) skews toward ROBS-financed owners and is not fully representative of all US small businesses. McKinsey’s 6 million and $5 trillion figures are model projections, not counts, and are stated as approximate. Project Equity’s firm and worker counts derive from an earlier data vintage. Where sources disagree, we cite the conservative figure and flag the conflict rather than average them.

Last verified: July 2026 · Next review: January 2027

Sources

• US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey (owner age distribution): census.gov/library/visualizations/2020/comm/business-owners-ages.html
• McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, “The great ownership transfer” (February 2026): mckinsey.com/institute-for-economic-mobility/our-insights/the-great-ownership-transfer-a-new-era-of-business-stewardship
• US SBA Office of Advocacy, Frequently Asked Questions About Small Business / Small Business Profile (2025): advocacy.sba.gov
• Exit Planning Institute, National State of Owner Readiness (2023): exit-planning-institute.org/state-of-owner-readiness
• Gallup, “Most Small-Business Owners Lack a Succession Plan” (2025): news.gallup.com/poll/657362
• Guidant Financial, 2026 Small Business Trends: guidantfinancial.com/small-business-trends/
• Project Equity, Silver Tsunami: project-equity.org/impact/silver-tsunami/