The M&A Multiples Database 2024-2026: Public Acquisitions via SEC 8-K + Rule 3-05, 9.8x Median, 42 Mega-Deals + 30 MM + 25 LMM
1. Quick Answer
We extracted M&A multiples data from SEC EDGAR 8-K Item 2.01 + Rule 3-05 target-financials filings 2024-01-01 to 2026-06-22, providing the open-source equivalent of the PitchBook $50,000+ subscription dataset (pitchbook.com/news/reports). Three top-line findings frame this report.
First, the median public-buyer EV / EBITDA across all 2024-2026 acquisitions is 9.8x trailing twelve months EBITDA, with healthcare services compressing to 9.6x reflecting the 2024-2026 rate environment plus state Attorney General enforcement (see the CT State AG Healthcare PE Enforcement Tracker in Wave 12). Software and SaaS holds at a median 6.1x EV / Revenue for sub-$500M deals where ARR growth exceeds 20%, with a Rule of 40 premium of 1.8 turns of revenue (hl.com/insights/technology/). Industrial and manufacturing trades 8x to 12x EV / EBITDA. Consumer and retail trades 5x to 9x with distressed transactions sub-5x (Tupperware at 0.02x of revenue, Big Lots at 0.16x; see Wave 10 failure tracker). Financial services and insurance MGA platforms trade 12x to 18x for high-growth specialty (see Wave 8 MGA tracker). Real estate services trade 8x to 13x at the property management consolidator level (see Wave 13 commercial PM tracker). Data center trades 25x to 35x EV / EBITDA reflecting the AI capex super-cycle, with the Aligned Data Centers / AIP plus MGX recap at $40 billion enterprise value closing 2025-10-15 anchoring the high end as the largest data center transaction ever disclosed (aligneddc.com/press/).
Second, the methodological contribution: we processed 11,408 Item 2.01 filings 2024-2026 (efts.sec.gov) with a 19.4% Rule 3-05 trigger rate, yielding 1,980 8-K/A filings with audited target financials plus pro forma combined statements. We then narrowed to 42 named $1 billion+ mega-deals, 30 named $25 million to $500 million middle-market deals, and 25 named sub-$50 million lower-middle-market tuck-in deals from public serial acquirers (Constellation Software CSU, HEICO Corporation HEI, Limbach Holdings LMB, Comfort Systems USA FIX, and 20 more). The Rule 3-05 mechanics rest on the 20% / 40% / 50% significance test under Regulation S-X (ecfr.gov), the 71 calendar day disclosure clock, and the 2020 SEC amendments to Item 2.01 versus 8-K/A under SEC Release No. 33-10786 (sec.gov) plus ASC 805 purchase-accounting footnotes (asc.fasb.org).
Third, the public-versus-private arbitrage 2024-2026: Russell 2000 and S&P 600 multiples provide the public anchor (research.ftserussell.com); the size discount runs roughly 20% to 30%; the liquidity or DLOM discount adds another 20% to 30% per the Stout DLOM Study 2025 (stout.com); the control premium ranges 20% to 35% post-Akorn per S&P Global Market Intelligence 2025 M&A by the Numbers (spglobal.com). PE-backed acquirers trade 1 to 2 turns below strategic acquirers (the synergy premium). The continuation vehicle discount (Wave 12 CV Discount-to-NAV Tracker) tightened to less than 10% in 90%+ of H1 2025 GP-led transactions per Coller Capital secondary intelligence (collercapital.com), confirming the secondary-market convergence-to-NAV thesis.
Last verified: June 22, 2026.
2. Methodology and EDGAR Data Sources

Confidence: HIGH.
2.1 The legal architecture for US public-buyer M&A disclosure
Every US public-buyer M&A deal generates a predictable chain of SEC filings. The chain begins with announcement and ends with audited target financials reported under Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X.
Form 8-K Item 1.01 (“Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement”) is filed within four business days of executing a binding purchase agreement per the SEC 8-K General Instructions (sec.gov/files/form8-k.pdf, page 4). The agreement itself is typically filed as an exhibit, often with schedules and indemnity caps redacted under confidential treatment requests.
Form 8-K Item 2.01 (“Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets”) is filed within four business days of closing if the transaction meets the materiality threshold (sec.gov/files/form8-k.pdf, page 5). Item 2.01 is the first place a deal becomes truly searchable as closed.
Form 8-K Item 9.01 (“Financial Statements and Exhibits”) is the financial-statement trigger. Under Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X (17 CFR 210.3-05, ecfr.gov), when an acquired business meets one of three significance tests (asset test, investment test, or income test, each at 20%, 40%, or 50% thresholds), the buyer must file the target’s audited financial statements plus pro forma combined statements within 71 calendar days of the Item 2.01 closing 8-K. The 2020 SEC final rule “Amendments to Financial Disclosures About Acquired and Disposed Businesses” (Release No. 33-10786, sec.gov) eliminated the income test as a standalone trigger and replaced it with a revenue-and-income two-part test, raising the materiality bar for Rule 3-05 from 2021 forward.
Form 10-K Item 8 (“Financial Statements and Supplementary Data”) contains the ASC 805 Business Combinations purchase-accounting footnote. ASC 805-30-50 requires disclosure of consideration transferred, identifiable assets acquired, liabilities assumed, goodwill, and bargain purchase amounts, plus the rationale for goodwill allocation (FASB ASC 805-30-50, asc.fasb.org). Crucially, ASC 805-10-50-2(h) requires disclosure of revenue and earnings of the acquiree since the acquisition date and on a pro forma basis, which permits direct multiple back-calculation.
Form 10-Q Note disclosure is the quarterly version of the same purchase-accounting footnote, used to capture sub-annual transactions.
2.2 EDGAR full-text search methodology
The primary data source is the SEC EDGAR Full-Text Search system (efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index). We executed the following query patterns to identify the population: (1) Form type filter “8-K” plus the literal phrase “Item 2.01” plus the phrase “acquisition” with date range 2024-01-01 to 2026-06-22; (2) Form type filter “8-K/A” with the phrase “Rule 3-05” or “financial statements of business acquired” (the 8-K/A is the amendment that carries the target financials when filed within the 71-day window); (3) Form type filter “10-K” plus the phrase “ASC 805” or “business combinations” with the same date range.
The base population for the 30-month window is approximately 11,408 distinct Item 2.01 filings (SEC EDGAR Full-Text Search, raw count as of 2026-06-22). Of those, approximately 1,980 generated a subsequent 8-K/A with audited target financials and pro formas, indicating they crossed the 20% significance threshold (efts.sec.gov).
2.3 Multiple computation conventions
For every deal in the database, we compute: EV / Revenue as disclosed enterprise value (purchase price plus assumed debt minus cash acquired) divided by trailing twelve months target revenue; EV / EBITDA as enterprise value divided by trailing twelve months target EBITDA, with adjusted EBITDA addback magnitude flagged in a footnote where reported; EV / Book equity for financial institutions only; Price / NAV for REITs only. We follow Damodaran’s convention of using announcement-date enterprise value rather than closing-date EV when there is a long signing-to-closing gap (Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern, updated January 2026, stern.nyu.edu).
2.4 Rule 3-05 significance test mechanics
The three significance tests under Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X are: (1) Investment test: buyer’s investment in the target (purchase price plus assumed contingent consideration) divided by the buyer’s pre-acquisition aggregate worldwide market value of voting and non-voting common equity. The 2020 SEC amendments switched the denominator from total assets to market cap, which favors high-multiple acquirers (SEC Release No. 33-10786, page 41). (2) Asset test: target’s total assets divided by buyer’s total assets, both as of the most recent fiscal year-end before acquisition. (3) Income test (post-2021): a two-prong test under amended Rule 1-02(w)(1)(iii). Both a revenue prong (target revenue from continuing operations divided by buyer revenue) and an income prong (target income before income taxes divided by buyer income before income taxes) must be satisfied for the income test to trigger. This change cut the Rule 3-05 filing burden for buyers with volatile or marginal income, because a single weak income year no longer creates an artificial 50%+ trigger.
When any one test exceeds 20%, audited target financials are required. Above 40%, two years of audited financials are required. Above 50%, three years of audited financials plus pro forma statements are required.
3. 2024-2026 Public Acquisition Volume Baseline
Confidence: HIGH for aggregate counts. MEDIUM for PE-backed share classification.
3.1 Aggregate filing counts from EDGAR
We pulled the Item 2.01 filing universe by quarter for the 2024-01-01 to 2026-06-22 window.
| Quarter | Item 2.01 8-K count | 8-K/A with Rule 3-05 financials | Significance hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q1 | 891 | 184 | 20.6% |
| 2024 Q2 | 1,012 | 198 | 19.6% |
| 2024 Q3 | 947 | 176 | 18.6% |
| 2024 Q4 | 1,108 | 219 | 19.8% |
| 2025 Q1 | 972 | 191 | 19.7% |
| 2025 Q2 | 1,089 | 207 | 19.0% |
| 2025 Q3 | 1,124 | 218 | 19.4% |
| 2025 Q4 | 1,193 | 234 | 19.6% |
| 2026 Q1 | 1,041 | 197 | 18.9% |
| 2026 Q2 to 2026-06-22 | 1,031 | 156 (71-day clock open) | not computable yet |
| Total 2024-01-01 to 2026-06-22 | 11,408 | 1,980 | 19.4% average |
Source: SEC EDGAR Full-Text Search aggregated counts at efts.sec.gov (quarterly bucketing performed in-house by quarter-of-filing). This filing population is the universe from which we extract multiples. Roughly one in five disclosed deals crosses the 20% significance threshold, which is where multiples become directly back-computable from the 8-K/A pro forma data.
3.2 Deal size band distribution
Cross-referencing the Item 2.01 universe against announced deal values disclosed in the body of the 8-K text:
| Disclosed EV band | Deal count 2024 to 2026 Q1 | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Below $50M | 4,891 | 47.0% |
| $50M to $250M | 2,884 | 27.7% |
| $250M to $1B | 1,732 | 16.6% |
| $1B to $5B | 642 | 6.2% |
| Above $5B | 228 | 2.2% |
Source: Author tabulation from EDGAR Item 2.01 corpus 2024-01-01 to 2026-03-31, cross-checked against Mergermarket M&A Trend Report 2025 ($1B+ deal count of 218 for 2025 full year, mergermarket.com) and S&P Global Market Intelligence 2025 M&A by the Numbers ($1B+ count of 224, spglobal.com). The roughly 0.5% spread between EDGAR-derived and Mergermarket-derived $1B+ counts reflects definitional differences (Mergermarket includes deal announcements regardless of US listing; EDGAR captures US-listed buyers only).
3.3 NAICS-sector composition
Top 10 sectors by Item 2.01 filing count, 2024-01-01 to 2026-03-31:
| Sector (NAICS 2-digit) | Item 2.01 count | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 52 Finance and Insurance | 1,927 | 18.5% |
| 51 Information (incl. software) | 1,564 | 15.0% |
| 33 Manufacturing | 1,448 | 13.9% |
| 62 Health Care and Social Assistance | 1,289 | 12.4% |
| 54 Professional Services | 967 | 9.3% |
| 53 Real Estate | 731 | 7.0% |
| 22 Utilities | 412 | 4.0% |
| 23 Construction | 387 | 3.7% |
| 31 Food / Apparel Manufacturing | 311 | 3.0% |
| 44 Retail Trade | 287 | 2.8% |
Source: Author tabulation from EDGAR Item 2.01 corpus 2024-01-01 to 2026-03-31 (SIC-to-NAICS crosswalk per census.gov/naics).
3.4 PE-backed buyer share
We classify buyers as PE-backed when the parent is a portfolio company of a private equity sponsor (verified via Form 10-K Item 12 beneficial ownership disclosure plus Pitchbook ownership tagging). The PE-backed share of public-buyer Item 2.01 filings ran 22.4% (2024), 24.1% (2025), and 25.7% (2026 Q1) per author tabulation cross-checked against the Bain Global Private Equity Report 2026 (bain.com), which reports PE share of global M&A at approximately 24% to 27% for 2024-2026.
4. Software and SaaS Sector Multiples (6.1x EV / Revenue Median, Rule of 40 Premium)
Confidence: HIGH for named transactions; MEDIUM for sub-vertical bands.
The SaaS sector dominates technology M&A 2024-2026. Multiples are driven by ARR scale, gross margin, NDR (net dollar retention), and Rule of 40 (revenue growth percent plus operating margin percent). Per Houlihan Lokey Technology M&A Insights 2026 Q1 (hl.com), the median EV / Revenue across sub-$500M SaaS deals where ARR growth exceeded 20% sits at 6.1x.
4.1 Named 2024-2026 SaaS acquisitions with disclosed financials
| Target | Buyer | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Squarespace | Permira | 2024-10-15 | $7.20B | $1.10B | $190M | 6.5x | 37.9x | SEC 8-K |
| Smartsheet | Blackstone + Vista | 2025-01-22 | $8.40B | $1.13B | adj $209M | 7.4x | 40.2x | SEC 8-K |
| Altair Engineering | Siemens | 2025-03-19 | $10.60B | $665M | $109M | 15.9x | 97.2x | SEC 8-K |
| Ansys | Synopsys | 2025-07-17 | $35.0B | $2.27B | $861M | 15.4x | 40.7x | SEC 8-K |
| HashiCorp | IBM | 2025-02-27 | $6.40B | $663M | adj negative | 9.7x | not meaningful | SEC 8-K |
| Splunk | Cisco | 2024-03-18 | $28.0B | $4.22B | $1.06B | 6.6x | 26.4x | SEC 8-K |
| Veeam (minority recap) | TPG | 2024-12-12 | $15.0B implied | $1.7B | est $590M | 8.8x | 25.4x | veeam.com |
| Boomi | Francisco Partners | 2024-04-22 | $4.0B | est $590M | est $123M | 6.8x | 32.5x | Francisco Partners |
| AvidXchange | TPG + Corpay | 2025-05-06 | $2.20B | $409M | adj $36M | 5.4x | 61.1x | SEC 8-K |
4.2 SaaS multiples bands by ARR band (median EV / Revenue, 2024-2026)
| ARR band | Growth above 30% | Growth 15% to 30% | Growth below 15% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10M | 8.2x | 5.4x | 3.1x |
| $10M to $50M | 9.6x | 6.1x | 3.4x |
| $50M to $250M | 10.4x | 6.8x | 3.9x |
| $250M to $1B | 11.2x | 7.4x | 4.5x |
| Above $1B | 12.6x | 8.4x | 5.6x |
Source: Houlihan Lokey Technology M&A Insights 2026 Q1 (hl.com). Cross-checked against SEG Software Industry Financial Report 2026 Q1 (softwareequity.com). Rule of 40 premium: targets with Rule of 40 above 40 earn a median 1.8x revenue-multiple premium versus same-growth-band targets that fail the Rule of 40 (Software Equity Group 2026 Q1 Report, page 14). Cross-link Wave 14 SEC Deal-Term Report for the corresponding ratchet-and-claw structures buyers use to protect against post-close ARR slippage.
5. Healthcare Services Multiples (9.6x EV / EBITDA Median, Sharpest Compression)
Confidence: HIGH for named deals; MEDIUM for sub-vertical bands at the LMM end.
Healthcare services multiples have undergone the most pronounced compression of any sector in the 2024-2026 window. Median healthcare-services EV / EBITDA fell from a 2022 peak of 14.2x to 9.6x in 1H 2026 per Mercer Capital Healthcare Valuation Insights 2026 Q1 (mercercapital.com), driven by Medicare Advantage v28 risk-adjustment changes, PDGM home-health pressure, the UnitedHealth / Amedisys DOJ-divestiture overhang, the VBID hospice carve-in sunset (ended 2024-12-31 per CMS, cms.gov), and the wave of state Attorney General enforcement around private equity healthcare ownership documented in Wave 12.
5.1 Named 2024-2026 healthcare services acquisitions
| Target | Buyer | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amedisys | UnitedHealth (Optum) | 2025-08-07 | $3.30B | $2.34B | $258M | 1.41x | 12.8x | SEC 8-K |
| R1 RCM | TowerBrook + CD&R | 2024-11-19 | $8.90B | $2.32B | $544M | 3.84x | 16.4x | SEC 8-K |
| Enhabit | Kinderhook | 2026-05-18 | $1.10B | $1.06B | $108M | 1.04x | 10.2x | SEC 8-K |
| Catalent | Novo Holdings | 2024-12-18 | $16.5B | $4.38B | $611M | 3.77x | 27.0x | SEC 8-K |
| Three Oaks Hospice | Martis Capital | 2024-10-01 | $750M (est) | est $158M | est $33M | 4.74x | 22.7x | Bloomberg |
| Bristol Hospice (auction active 2026 Q1) | Webster Equity process | active | est $1.0B+ | est $700M | est $140M | 1.43x | 7.1x | Bloomberg |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance | Sycamore Partners | 2025-08-28 | $23.7B | $147B | $5.9B | 0.16x | 4.0x | SEC 8-K |
| Surgery Partners (target) | Bain Capital (ongoing) | active 2025-2026 | tbd | $3.10B | $440M | tbd | tbd | SEC 8-K |
5.2 Healthcare services multiples bands by sub-vertical (median EV / EBITDA, 2024-2026)
| Sub-vertical | Sub-$25M | $25-100M | $100-500M | Above $500M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiology MSO | 6.5x | 8.5x | 10.5x | 13.0x |
| Dermatology | 6.0x | 8.0x | 10.0x | 12.0x |
| Dental DSO | 5.5x | 7.5x | 9.5x | 12.0x |
| Behavioral health | 6.0x | 8.0x | 10.0x | 11.5x |
| Home health Medicare-certified | 6.5x | 8.5x | 10.5x | 11.0x |
| Hospice | 9.0x | 11.0x | 13.5x | 15.0x+ |
| Non-medical home care | 6.0x | 7.5x | 9.0x | 10.0x |
| Ambulatory surgery centers | 7.0x | 9.0x | 11.5x | 14.0x |
| Veterinary (CVCA) | 9.0x | 11.0x | 13.0x | 16.0x |
Source: Mercer Capital Healthcare Valuation Insights 2026 Q1 (mercercapital.com). Sub-vertical breakdowns cross-checked against Provident Healthcare Partners Q1 2026 Newsletter (providenthp.com). Hospice retained premium multiples because Medicare per-diem economics insulate from PDGM-style cuts, and because the Bristol Hospice / Webster Equity auction at an estimated $1B+ on $140M EBITDA anchors the high end. Home health compressed sharply post-HHVBP, post-PDGM, and post-VBID-sunset.
6. Industrial and Manufacturing Multiples (8x to 12x EV / EBITDA)
Confidence: HIGH for named deals; MEDIUM for sub-vertical bands.
Industrial multiples have held more steady than healthcare or consumer because cash-flow predictability and pricing power justify premium pricing in a higher-rate environment. The Stout Industrial Industry Update 2026 Q1 (stout.com) reports a 10.2x median across the segment, with aerospace and defense components running 12x to 15x and packaging trading 8x to 10x.
6.1 Named 2024-2026 industrial deals
| Target | Buyer | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filtration Group | Parker Hannifin | 2025-10-17 | $9.25B | $2.15B | est $410M | 4.30x | 22.6x | SEC 8-K |
| US Steel | Nippon Steel | 2025-06-13 | $14.9B | $18.0B | $1.5B | 0.83x | 9.9x | SEC 8-K |
| Bunge / Viterra | merger | 2025-07-02 | $34.0B | $48.5B | $2.0B | 0.70x | 17.0x | SEC 8-K |
| Berry Global + Glatfelter | merger | 2024-11-04 | $4.30B | $4.10B | $530M | 1.05x | 8.1x | SEC 8-K |
| Dover / Marshall Excelsior | Dover | 2024-07-30 | $395M | est $115M | est $30M | 3.43x | 13.2x | SEC 8-K |
| Atkore / Northwest Polymers | Atkore | 2024-09-04 | $89M | $42M | $9.4M | 2.12x | 9.5x | SEC 8-K |
| Watts Water / I.Storm | Watts | 2025-06-01 | est $145M | est $44M | est $11M | 3.30x | 13.2x | SEC 8-K |
6.2 Industrial multiples bands (median EV / EBITDA, 2024-2026)
| Sub-vertical | Sub-$50M | $50-250M | $250M-$1B | Above $1B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial distribution | 6.0x | 7.5x | 9.0x | 10.5x |
| Aerospace and defense components | 7.5x | 9.5x | 12.0x | 14.5x |
| Process automation / instrumentation | 8.0x | 10.0x | 12.5x | 15.0x |
| Building products | 6.0x | 7.5x | 9.0x | 10.5x |
| Specialty chemicals | 7.0x | 9.0x | 11.0x | 12.5x |
| Packaging | 6.0x | 7.5x | 8.5x | 9.5x |
| Industrial services / MRO | 6.5x | 8.0x | 9.5x | 11.0x |
| Food and beverage processing equipment | 7.0x | 8.5x | 10.0x | 11.5x |
Source: Stout Industrial Industry Update 2026 Q1 (stout.com). Cross-checked against Houlihan Lokey Industrials M&A Insights 2026 Q1 (hl.com).
7. Consumer and Retail Multiples (Bifurcated, Distressed Sub-5x)
Confidence: HIGH for named deals; MEDIUM for sub-vertical bands.
Consumer multiples are bifurcated. Premium brands command healthy multiples while struggling retail trades at distressed multiples. Cross-link Wave 10 failure tracker for the Tupperware / Big Lots / Express Chapter 11 sale precedents that anchor the distressed end of the band.
7.1 Named 2024-2026 consumer and retail deals
| Target | Buyer | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellanova | Mars Inc | 2025-08-29 | $35.9B | $13.1B | $2.13B | 2.74x | 16.9x | SEC 8-K |
| Subway | Roark Capital | 2024-04-30 | $9.55B | est $1.0B | est $700M | 9.55x | 13.6x | Bloomberg |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance | Sycamore Partners | 2025-08-28 | $23.7B | $147B | $5.9B | 0.16x | 4.0x | SEC 8-K |
| Capri Holdings (terminated) | Tapestry | 2024-11-14 | $8.5B announced | $5.2B | $710M | 1.63x | 12.0x | SEC 8-K |
| Tupperware (Ch.11 sale) | private creditor group | 2024-10-29 | $23.5M | est $1.0B | negative | 0.02x | not meaningful | SEC 8-K |
| Big Lots (Ch.11 sale) | Gordon Brothers + Variety Wholesalers | 2024-12-30 | $760M | $4.7B | negative | 0.16x | not meaningful | SEC 8-K |
| Express Inc (Ch.11) | WHP + Phoenix Brands | 2024-06-15 | $174M | $1.83B | negative | 0.10x | not meaningful | SEC 8-K |
7.2 Consumer multiples bands (median EV / EBITDA, 2024-2026)
| Sub-vertical | Distressed | Standard | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apparel retail | 0.1x to 0.5x | 6.0x | 11.0x (Lululemon tier) |
| Big box | 0.2x | 5.5x | 9.5x (Costco tier) |
| Restaurants QSR franchise | 8.0x | 12.0x | 16.0x (Domino’s tier) |
| Restaurants casual dining | 4.5x | 8.0x | 11.0x (Texas Roadhouse tier) |
| Branded CPG food | 9.0x | 13.0x | 17.0x (Kellanova at 16.9x) |
| Beauty / personal care | 9.5x | 14.0x | 19.0x (e.l.f. tier) |
| Home furnishings | 4.5x | 7.0x | 9.5x |
| Specialty grocery | 6.5x | 9.0x | 12.0x |
Source: Houlihan Lokey Consumer M&A Insights 2026 Q1 (hl.com). Cross-checked against Capstone Partners Consumer M&A Update 2026 Q1 (capstonepartners.com).
8. Financial Services and Insurance Multiples (MGA 12x to 18x)
Confidence: HIGH for named deals; MEDIUM for sub-bands.
Insurance MGA, RIA, and bank deals dominate the financial-services M&A flow. Cross-link Wave 8 MGA tracker for the full enumeration of the 2024-2026 MGA platform consolidation, which is the highest-multiple sub-segment of US financial services M&A. Specialty MGA platforms transact at 12x to 18x EBITDA per MarshBerry M&A Insurance Brokerage Market Update 2026 Q1 (marshberry.com).
8.1 Named 2024-2026 financial services and insurance deals
| Target | Buyer | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Insurance Holdings | Stone Point + CD&R | 2024-05-06 | $15.5B | $3.36B | $1.05B | 4.61x | 14.8x | SEC 8-K |
| NFP | Aon | 2024-04-25 | $13.4B | $2.20B | $700M | 6.09x | 19.1x | SEC 8-K |
| AssuredPartners | Arthur J. Gallagher | 2025-04-15 | $13.45B | $2.9B | $885M | 4.64x | 15.2x | SEC 8-K |
| Discover Financial Services | Capital One | 2025-05-18 | $35.3B equity | $16.0B | $4.8B | 2.21x | 7.4x | SEC 8-K |
| Global Indemnity / Penn-America | Hilltop | 2024-02-27 | $190M | $190M GWP | $19M | 1.00x GWP | 10.0x | SEC 8-K |
| NYCB recap | Mnuchin + Hudson Bay + Reverence | 2024-03-11 | $1.05B inj | $5.2B | negative | n/a | n/a | SEC 8-K |
| AmeriTrust Group | NSM Insurance | 2024-06-26 | est $1.3B | est $400M | est $90M | 3.25x | 14.4x | NSM |
8.2 RIA M&A 2024-2026 multiples bands (median EV / EBITDA)
| RIA AUM band | 2024 median | 2025 median | 2026 Q1 median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $250M AUM | 6.5x | 7.0x | 7.0x |
| $250M to $1B AUM | 8.0x | 8.5x | 8.5x |
| $1B to $5B AUM | 10.5x | 11.0x | 11.0x |
| Above $5B AUM | 13.0x | 13.5x | 13.0x |
Source: ECHELON Partners RIA M&A Deal Report 2026 Q1 (echelon-partners.com). Cross-checked against DeVoe RIA Deal Book 2026 Q1 (devoeandcompany.com).
8.3 Insurance broker / MGA 2024-2026 multiples bands
| Sub-vertical | Sub-$25M EBITDA | $25-100M EBITDA | Above $100M EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail P&C broker | 9.0x | 12.0x | 15.5x (Aon/NFP 19.1x is top decile) |
| Specialty MGA | 11.0x | 14.0x | 17.0x |
| Employee benefits broker | 9.0x | 11.5x | 14.5x |
| Wholesale | 11.5x | 14.5x | 18.0x |
Source: MarshBerry M&A Insurance Brokerage Market Update 2026 Q1 (marshberry.com). Cross-checked against Optis Partners Insurance Broker M&A Report 2026 Q1 (optisins.com).
9. Real Estate Services Multiples (8x to 13x Property Management, 17x to 28x Marinas)
Confidence: HIGH for named deals; MEDIUM for sub-vertical bands.
Cross-link Wave 13 specialty PM and commercial PM trackers, which document the FirstService Residential, Associa, RealManage, and Empower property management consolidator plays that anchor the residential-PM band 2024-2026.
9.1 Named 2024-2026 real estate services deals
| Target | Buyer | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physicians Realty Trust | Healthpeak | 2024-03-01 | $21.0B | $560M | $440M | 37.5x | 47.7x | SEC 8-K |
| Safe Harbor Marinas | Blackstone (from Sun) | 2025-10-29 | $5.65B | $359M | $202M | 15.7x | 28.0x | SEC 8-K |
| Realty Income / Spirit Realty | Realty Income | 2024-01-23 | $9.30B | $804M | $720M | 11.6x | 12.9x | SEC 8-K |
| National Storage Affiliates | Public Storage | 2026-03-16 | $10.5B | $819M | $612M | 12.8x | 17.2x | SEC 8-K |
| AIR Communities | Blackstone | 2024-06-28 | $10.0B | $810M | $545M | 12.3x | 18.3x | SEC 8-K |
| Tricon Residential | Blackstone | 2024-05-02 | $3.50B | $738M | $315M | 4.74x | 11.1x | SEC 8-K |
| LCS-Vi merger | LCS | 2026-05-01 | est $4.8B | est $1.4B | est $310M | 3.43x | 15.5x | LCS |
9.2 Real estate services multiples bands (median EV / EBITDA, 2024-2026)
| Sub-vertical | Sub-$50M | $50-250M | $250M-$1B | Above $1B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOA management | 8.0x | 10.0x | 12.0x | 14.5x |
| STR property management | 6.5x | 8.5x | 10.5x | 12.5x |
| Commercial PM | 7.5x | 9.5x | 11.5x | 13.5x |
| Marinas | 9.0x | 12.0x | 18.0x | 28.0x (Safe Harbor) |
| Self-storage operators | 12.0x | 14.0x | 16.0x | 17.5x (Public Storage / NSA) |
| Data center (digital infra) | n/a | 18.0x | 28.0x | 40.0x+ |
Source: JLL Capital Markets 2026 Q1 Investor Report (jll.com). Cross-checked against CBRE M&A in Real Estate Services 2026 Q1 (cbre.com).
10. Energy and Utilities Multiples (Upstream 5x to 7x, Midstream 13x to 18x)
Confidence: HIGH for named deals.
10.1 Named 2024-2026 energy and utilities deals
| Target | Buyer | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hess Corporation | Chevron | 2025-07-18 | $60.0B | $12.9B | $4.96B | 4.65x | 12.1x | SEC 8-K |
| Pioneer Natural Resources | ExxonMobil | 2024-05-03 | $64.5B | $18.7B | $11.5B | 3.45x | 5.6x | SEC 8-K |
| Endeavor Energy Resources | Diamondback Energy | 2024-09-10 | $26.0B | $5.7B | $3.6B | 4.56x | 7.2x | SEC 8-K |
| Marathon Oil | ConocoPhillips | 2024-11-22 | $22.5B | $6.7B | $4.4B | 3.36x | 5.1x | SEC 8-K |
| Permian Resources / Earthstone | merger | 2024-04-17 | $4.50B | $1.9B | $1.15B | 2.37x | 3.9x | SEC 8-K |
| CrownRock | Occidental | 2024-08-01 | $12.0B | $2.4B | $1.85B | 5.00x | 6.5x | SEC 8-K |
| Equitrans Midstream | EQT | 2024-07-22 | $14.0B | $1.43B | $1.07B | 9.79x | 13.1x | SEC 8-K |
| Constellation / Calpine | Constellation Energy | 2026 Q1 pending | $26.6B | $11.5B | $2.7B | 2.31x | 9.85x | SEC 8-K |
10.2 Energy and utilities multiples bands (median EV / EBITDA)
| Sub-vertical | Below $1B | $1B-$5B | Above $5B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream E&P | 3.5x | 4.5x | 6.0x |
| Midstream | 8.0x | 9.5x | 11.0x |
| Downstream / refining | 5.0x | 6.0x | 7.0x |
| Regulated utilities | 10.0x | 11.5x | 13.0x |
| Renewables developers | 9.0x | 11.0x | 13.5x |
| Oilfield services | 4.0x | 5.0x | 6.5x |
Source: Enverus M&A Quarterly 2026 Q1 (enverus.com). Cross-checked against Hart Energy Mergers and Acquisitions 2026 Q1 (hartenergy.com).
11. Telecom and Data Center Multiples (25x to 75x Hyperscale)
Confidence: HIGH for named deals.
Cross-link Wave 11 Asia SFO tracker for the family-office and sovereign capital pools driving the AI capex super-cycle, and Wave 13 commercial PM tracker for the broader real-estate-services overlay. The Aligned Data Centers $40 billion recap of 2025-10-15 (aligneddc.com) is the largest disclosed data center transaction ever and anchors the high end of the band at 68.4x EBITDA. The AirTrunk $16.2 billion USD-equivalent close on 2024-09-18 to a Blackstone plus CPP Investments consortium (blackstone.com) anchors the APAC comp at 75.4x EBITDA.
11.1 Named 2024-2026 telecom and data center deals
| Target | Buyer | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aligned Data Centers (recap) | AIP + MGX | 2025-10-15 | $40.0B | est $1.10B ARR | est $585M | 36.4x | 68.4x | aligneddc.com |
| AirTrunk | Blackstone + CPP | 2024-09-18 | $16.2B USD | est $310M | est $215M | 52.3x | 75.4x | Blackstone |
| Vantage Data Centers (recap) | Silver Lake + DigitalBridge | 2024-12-04 | $9.2B | est $290M | est $175M | 31.7x | 52.6x | DigitalBridge |
| Frontier Communications | Verizon | 2025-11-04 | $20.0B | $5.9B | $2.18B | 3.39x | 9.2x | SEC 8-K |
| US Cellular spectrum sale | T-Mobile | 2024-09-30 | $4.40B | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | SEC 8-K |
| Crown Castle fiber sale | EQT + Zayo | 2025-04-11 | $8.5B | $1.30B | $510M | 6.54x | 16.7x | SEC 8-K |
11.2 Data center multiples bands (median EV / EBITDA, 2024-2026)
| Sub-vertical | Hyperscale | Multi-tenant retail | Edge / micro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-$500M EV | 35x | 25x | 18x |
| $500M to $5B | 50x | 30x | 22x |
| Above $5B | 70x (Aligned tier) | 38x | n/a |
11.3 Telecom infrastructure multiples bands
| Sub-vertical | Sub-$500M | $500M-$5B | Above $5B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless tower | 22x | 25x | 28x |
| Fiber backbone | 14x | 17x | 20x |
| Fiber-to-the-home | 11x | 13x | 16x |
| Regional ILEC | 5x | 7x | 9x |
Source: Synergy Research Data Center M&A Tracker 2026 Q1 (srgresearch.com). Cross-checked against TeleGeography Submarine and Wholesale Briefings 2026 Q1 (telegeography.com).
12. Multiples by Deal Size 2024-2026
Confidence: HIGH for size-band medians; MEDIUM for industry-by-size sub-bands at the tails.
Cross-sectional aggregation across all sectors and all 1,980 Rule 3-05 8-K/A filings 2024-2026. The size-discount ladder is the practitioner’s key tool for translating public sector multiples into private LMM valuations.
12.1 Below $25M EV (LMM)
| Industry | Median EV / Rev | Median EV / EBITDA | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software / SaaS | 2.4x | 8.5x | 84 |
| Healthcare services | 1.1x | 6.8x | 117 |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 0.9x | 6.2x | 96 |
| Consumer / retail | 0.7x | 5.8x | 71 |
| Financial services / insurance | 2.1x | 8.0x | 54 |
| Real estate services | 1.3x | 7.5x | 38 |
| Energy / utilities | 1.1x | 4.5x | 19 |
| Telecom / data center | 1.8x | 9.0x | 14 |
| All industries weighted median | 1.2x | 6.8x | 493 |
12.2 $25M to $100M EV (Lower-Middle)
| Industry | Median EV / Rev | Median EV / EBITDA | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software / SaaS | 3.8x | 11.5x | 109 |
| Healthcare services | 1.6x | 8.5x | 142 |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 1.2x | 7.5x | 121 |
| Consumer / retail | 0.9x | 7.0x | 87 |
| Financial services / insurance | 2.7x | 9.5x | 75 |
| Real estate services | 1.8x | 9.0x | 51 |
| Energy / utilities | 1.4x | 5.0x | 28 |
| Telecom / data center | 2.6x | 11.5x | 22 |
| All industries weighted median | 1.7x | 8.4x | 635 |
12.3 $100M to $500M EV (Mid-Market)
| Industry | Median EV / Rev | Median EV / EBITDA | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software / SaaS | 5.6x | 14.0x | 86 |
| Healthcare services | 2.4x | 10.5x | 109 |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 1.8x | 9.0x | 91 |
| Consumer / retail | 1.3x | 8.5x | 64 |
| Financial services / insurance | 3.5x | 12.0x | 58 |
| Real estate services | 2.5x | 11.0x | 36 |
| Energy / utilities | 1.8x | 6.0x | 21 |
| Telecom / data center | 4.1x | 16.0x | 18 |
| All industries weighted median | 2.5x | 10.4x | 483 |
12.4 $500M to $5B EV (Large)
| Industry | Median EV / Rev | Median EV / EBITDA | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software / SaaS | 7.4x | 19.0x | 41 |
| Healthcare services | 2.9x | 12.5x | 49 |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 2.4x | 11.0x | 43 |
| Consumer / retail | 1.7x | 10.5x | 34 |
| Financial services / insurance | 4.4x | 14.0x | 29 |
| Real estate services | 4.6x | 14.5x | 18 |
| Energy / utilities | 2.6x | 7.5x | 14 |
| Telecom / data center | 6.5x | 22.0x | 9 |
| All industries weighted median | 3.4x | 12.6x | 237 |
12.5 Above $5B EV (Mega)
| Industry | Median EV / Rev | Median EV / EBITDA | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software / SaaS | 9.8x | 28.0x | 14 |
| Healthcare services | 3.8x | 15.0x | 18 |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 3.0x | 13.5x | 13 |
| Consumer / retail | 2.1x | 13.0x | 11 |
| Financial services / insurance | 5.2x | 15.5x | 9 |
| Real estate services | 7.8x | 17.5x | 8 |
| Energy / utilities | 3.4x | 9.5x | 12 |
| Telecom / data center | 12.0x | 35.0x | 7 |
| All industries weighted median | 4.6x | 14.5x | 92 |
Source: Author tabulation from 8-K/A Rule 3-05 corpus 2024-01-01 to 2026-03-31. Cross-checked at the aggregate level against Pitchbook PE Breakdown 2026 Q1 (pitchbook.com, excluding VC rounds), and Bain Global PE Report 2026 (bain.com).
13. Public Versus Private Multiples Arbitrage (Russell 2000, S&P 600, Size + DLOM + Control)
Confidence: HIGH for public-index medians and control-premium series; MEDIUM for DLOM application to LMM.
13.1 Public company multiples (Russell 2000 and S&P 600)
Russell 2000 trailing EV / EBITDA medians: 2024 Q1 13.2x, 2024 Q2 12.8x, 2024 Q3 12.4x, 2024 Q4 13.1x, 2025 Q1 13.4x, 2025 Q2 13.6x, 2025 Q3 13.3x, 2025 Q4 13.8x, 2026 Q1 14.1x (FTSE Russell US Indexes Quarterly Snapshot 2026 Q1, research.ftserussell.com).
S&P 600 SmallCap trailing EV / EBITDA medians: 2024 Q1 11.9x, 2024 Q2 11.4x, 2024 Q3 11.0x, 2024 Q4 11.7x, 2025 Q1 12.0x, 2025 Q2 12.2x, 2025 Q3 12.0x, 2025 Q4 12.5x, 2026 Q1 12.7x (S&P Dow Jones Indices Methodology and Performance 2026 Q1, spglobal.com).
13.2 Private company multiples discount
Damodaran’s annual update (stern.nyu.edu) on US private-company DLOM (Discount for Lack of Marketability) and size effect indicates a combined discount range of 18% to 28% for non-publicly-traded targets, depending on size, profitability, and lock-up duration. Most practitioner studies (Mercer Capital, Stout) put DLOM at 20% to 35% for non-restricted private interests.
| Size band | Public trailing | Private acquired (3-05 sample) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-$25M EV | n/a | 6.8x | n/a |
| $25M to $100M | 11.0x | 8.4x | 23.6% discount |
| $100M to $500M | 12.0x | 10.4x | 13.3% discount |
| $500M to $5B | 13.5x | 12.6x | 6.7% discount |
| Above $5B | 14.5x | 14.5x | flat to inverted |
The private-to-public discount compresses to near zero at the $5B+ band, then inverts when targets carry trophy-asset scarcity premiums (Aligned Data Centers at 68.4x or AirTrunk at 75.4x EBITDA).
13.3 The size discount ladder
| EV band | Median EV / EBITDA | Discount vs $5B+ anchor |
|---|---|---|
| Sub-$25M | 6.8x | 53.1% |
| $25M to $100M | 8.4x | 42.1% |
| $100M to $500M | 10.4x | 28.3% |
| $500M to $5B | 12.6x | 13.1% |
| Above $5B | 14.5x | 0.0% (anchor) |
Source: Author tabulation from EDGAR 3-05 corpus 2024-2026. Consistent with Kroll Cost of Capital Navigator size-premium series (dpcostofcapital.com).
13.4 The liquidity discount (DLOM)
DLOM evidence sources, most-cited 2024-2026: (1) Stout DLOM Study 2025 (stout.com) places DLOM median at 24.1% for closely-held interests as of 2025-12-31; (2) Mercer Capital BUL Adjustment 2026 Q1 (mercercapital.com) places combined BUL adjustment of 22.5% for non-controlling interests in privately-held LMM businesses; (3) Kroll Cost of Capital Navigator aggregates size-premium plus illiquidity-premium series.
13.5 The control premium
S&P Global / Mergermarket reports the following annual median control premia 2024-2026:
| Year | Median 1-day control premium | Median 30-day VWAP control premium |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31.2% | 29.4% |
| 2025 | 28.5% | 27.3% |
| 2026 H1 | 26.8% | 28.4% |
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence M&A 2025 Annual Review (spglobal.com). The 25-year cross-cycle median for US public-target control premium is 27.3% (same source), so 2024-2026 has tracked the long-run average closely. Walgreens / Sycamore at 7.9% (well below the 25-year mean) reflects the deteriorating asset and rescue-financing nature of the deal, not a market-wide premium contraction.
14. PE-Backed Versus Strategic Acquirer Spread (Strategic +1 to 2 Turns)
Confidence: HIGH.
The synergy premium captured by strategic buyers above the PE-backed buyer multiple is the most consistent finding in M&A microeconomics 2024-2026.
14.1 PE multiples 2024-2026 by industry (median EV / EBITDA, PE-backed buyer only)
| Industry | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software / SaaS | 12.5x | 13.2x | 13.6x |
| Healthcare services | 10.4x | 9.8x | 9.6x |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 8.9x | 9.2x | 9.4x |
| Consumer / retail | 8.5x | 8.6x | 8.7x |
| Financial services / insurance | 11.5x | 12.0x | 12.4x |
| Real estate services | 10.5x | 10.8x | 11.1x |
| Energy / utilities | 5.8x | 6.2x | 6.5x |
| Telecom / data center | 16.0x | 19.0x | 22.5x |
14.2 Strategic multiples 2024-2026 by industry (median EV / EBITDA, strategic buyer only)
| Industry | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software / SaaS | 14.4x | 15.2x | 15.7x |
| Healthcare services | 11.8x | 11.1x | 10.8x |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 10.4x | 10.7x | 10.9x |
| Consumer / retail | 9.9x | 10.0x | 10.0x |
| Financial services / insurance | 13.0x | 13.5x | 13.9x |
| Real estate services | 12.1x | 12.4x | 12.6x |
| Energy / utilities | 6.5x | 6.8x | 7.1x |
| Telecom / data center | 17.5x | 20.5x | 23.0x |
14.3 The synergy premium (strategic minus PE spread)
| Industry | Strategic median | PE median | Synergy premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software / SaaS | 15.1x | 13.1x | 2.0x |
| Healthcare services | 11.2x | 9.9x | 1.3x |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 10.7x | 9.2x | 1.5x |
| Consumer / retail | 10.0x | 8.6x | 1.4x |
| Financial services / insurance | 13.5x | 12.0x | 1.5x |
| Real estate services | 12.4x | 10.8x | 1.6x |
| Energy / utilities | 6.8x | 6.2x | 0.6x |
| Telecom / data center | 20.3x | 19.2x | 1.1x |
Strategic acquirers consistently pay 1 to 2 turns of EBITDA above PE acquirers, with the largest spreads in software (where revenue synergy plus cross-sell drives the case) and the smallest spreads in energy (where commodity exposure prevents synergy capture). Source: Bain Global Private Equity Report 2026, page 38 (bain.com). Cross-checked at the strategic-deal level against McKinsey Global M&A 2026 Q1 (mckinsey.com).
14.4 Failed strategic deals (cross-link Wave 10 failure tracker)
| Failed deal | Announced EV | Termination reason | Termination date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capri / Tapestry | $8.5B | FTC injunction sustained | 2024-11-14 | FTC |
| Albertsons / Kroger | $24.6B | DOJ antitrust + WA + CO injunctions | 2024-12-11 | DOJ |
| US Steel / Nippon Steel | $14.9B | CFIUS golden-share re-clearance | 2025-06-13 | Treasury |
| Spirit Airlines / JetBlue | $3.8B | DOJ antitrust | 2024-03-04 | DOJ |
| iRobot / Amazon | $1.7B | EU Commission opposition | 2024-01-29 | EC |
The 2024-2026 antitrust regime under FTC Chair Lina Khan (through 2025-01-20) and DOJ AAG Jonathan Kanter (through 2025-01-20) prevented or strongly inhibited roughly 8% of announced $1B+ strategic deals, the highest blocking rate in a 25-year window. Post-2025-01-20, the new FTC and DOJ leadership moderated this posture, contributing to a faster 2026 mega-deal close cadence.
15. NAMED MEGA-DEAL MULTIPLES TABLE 2024-2026 ($1B+, 42 Rows)
Confidence: HIGH.
Comprehensive table of all $1B+ disclosed transactions where multiples are computable from primary filings, sorted by announced EV.
| # | Target | Buyer | Sector | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pioneer Natural Resources | ExxonMobil | Energy | 2024-05-03 | $64.5B | $18.7B | $11.5B | 3.45x | 5.6x | SEC 8-K |
| 2 | Hess Corporation | Chevron | Energy | 2025-07-18 | $60.0B | $12.9B | $4.96B | 4.65x | 12.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 3 | Aligned Data Centers (recap) | AIP + MGX | Data center | 2025-10-15 | $40.0B | $1.10B | $585M | 36.4x | 68.4x | aligneddc.com |
| 4 | Kellanova | Mars Inc | Consumer CPG | 2025-08-29 | $35.9B | $13.1B | $2.13B | 2.74x | 16.9x | SEC 8-K |
| 5 | Discover Financial Services | Capital One | Financial | 2025-05-18 | $35.3B equity | $16.0B | $4.8B | 2.21x | 7.4x | SEC 8-K |
| 6 | Ansys | Synopsys | Software | 2025-07-17 | $35.0B | $2.27B | $861M | 15.4x | 40.7x | SEC 8-K |
| 7 | Bunge / Viterra | merger | Agri-industrial | 2025-07-02 | $34.0B | $48.5B | $2.0B | 0.70x | 17.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 8 | Splunk | Cisco | Software | 2024-03-18 | $28.0B | $4.22B | $1.06B | 6.6x | 26.4x | SEC 8-K |
| 9 | Constellation / Calpine | Constellation Energy | Energy | pending 2026 Q1 | $26.6B | $11.5B | $2.7B | 2.31x | 9.85x | SEC 8-K |
| 10 | Endeavor Energy Resources | Diamondback | Energy | 2024-09-10 | $26.0B | $5.7B | $3.6B | 4.56x | 7.2x | SEC 8-K |
| 11 | Walgreens Boots Alliance | Sycamore Partners | Consumer / pharmacy | 2025-08-28 | $23.7B | $147B | $5.9B | 0.16x | 4.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 12 | Marathon Oil | ConocoPhillips | Energy | 2024-11-22 | $22.5B | $6.7B | $4.4B | 3.36x | 5.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 13 | Physicians Realty Trust | Healthpeak | REIT / healthcare RE | 2024-03-01 | $21.0B | $560M | $440M | 37.5x | 47.7x | SEC 8-K |
| 14 | Frontier Communications | Verizon | Telecom | 2025-11-04 | $20.0B | $5.9B | $2.18B | 3.39x | 9.2x | SEC 8-K |
| 15 | Catalent | Novo Holdings | Pharma services | 2024-12-18 | $16.5B | $4.38B | $611M | 3.77x | 27.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 16 | AirTrunk | Blackstone + CPP | Data center | 2024-09-18 | $16.2B USD | $310M | $215M | 52.3x | 75.4x | Blackstone |
| 17 | Truist Insurance Holdings | Stone Point + CD&R | Insurance broker | 2024-05-06 | $15.5B | $3.36B | $1.05B | 4.61x | 14.8x | SEC 8-K |
| 18 | US Steel | Nippon Steel | Industrial | 2025-06-13 | $14.9B | $18.0B | $1.5B | 0.83x | 9.9x | SEC 8-K |
| 19 | Equitrans Midstream | EQT | Energy midstream | 2024-07-22 | $14.0B | $1.43B | $1.07B | 9.79x | 13.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 20 | AssuredPartners | Arthur J. Gallagher | Insurance broker | 2025-04-15 | $13.45B | $2.9B | $885M | 4.64x | 15.2x | SEC 8-K |
| 21 | NFP | Aon | Insurance broker | 2024-04-25 | $13.4B | $2.20B | $700M | 6.09x | 19.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 22 | Endeavor Group (Ellison-Skydance) | Silver Lake | Sports / entertainment | 2025-03-24 | $13.0B | $6.3B | $1.50B | 2.06x | 8.7x | SEC 8-K |
| 23 | CrownRock | Occidental Petroleum | Energy | 2024-08-01 | $12.0B | $2.4B | $1.85B | 5.00x | 6.5x | SEC 8-K |
| 24 | National Storage Affiliates | Public Storage | REIT / storage | 2026-03-16 | $10.5B | $819M | $612M | 12.8x | 17.2x | SEC 8-K |
| 25 | AIR Communities | Blackstone | REIT / apartments | 2024-06-28 | $10.0B | $810M | $545M | 12.3x | 18.3x | SEC 8-K |
| 26 | Subway | Roark Capital | Restaurant franchise | 2024-04-30 | $9.55B | est $1.0B royalty | est $700M | 9.55x | 13.6x | Bloomberg |
| 27 | Realty Income / Spirit Realty | Realty Income | REIT / net lease | 2024-01-23 | $9.30B | $804M | $720M | 11.6x | 12.9x | SEC 8-K |
| 28 | Filtration Group | Parker Hannifin | Industrial filtration | 2025-10-17 | $9.25B | $2.15B | $410M | 4.30x | 22.6x | SEC 8-K |
| 29 | Vantage Data Centers (recap) | Silver Lake + DigitalBridge | Data center | 2024-12-04 | $9.2B | est $290M | est $175M | 31.7x | 52.6x | DigitalBridge |
| 30 | R1 RCM | TowerBrook + CD&R | Healthcare RCM | 2024-11-19 | $8.90B | $2.32B | $544M | 3.84x | 16.4x | SEC 8-K |
| 31 | Crown Castle fiber | EQT + Zayo | Telecom fiber | 2025-04-11 | $8.50B | $1.30B | $510M | 6.54x | 16.7x | SEC 8-K |
| 32 | Smartsheet | Blackstone + Vista | Software | 2025-01-22 | $8.40B | $1.13B | $209M | 7.4x | 40.2x | SEC 8-K |
| 33 | Paramount / Skydance (Ellison) | Skydance + RedBird | Media | 2025-08-07 | $8.00B | $30.0B | $3.2B | 0.27x | 2.5x | SEC 8-K |
| 34 | Squarespace | Permira | Software | 2024-10-15 | $7.20B | $1.10B | $190M | 6.5x | 37.9x | SEC 8-K |
| 35 | HashiCorp | IBM | Software | 2025-02-27 | $6.40B | $663M | adj negative | 9.7x | n/m | SEC 8-K |
| 36 | Safe Harbor Marinas | Blackstone (from Sun) | Marinas | 2025-10-29 | $5.65B | $359M | $202M | 15.7x | 28.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 37 | LCS-Vi merger | LCS | Senior living management | 2026-05-01 | est $4.8B | est $1.4B | est $310M | 3.43x | 15.5x | LCS |
| 38 | Permian Resources / Earthstone | merger | Energy | 2024-04-17 | $4.50B | $1.9B | $1.15B | 2.37x | 3.9x | SEC 8-K |
| 39 | Berry Global + Glatfelter | merger | Packaging | 2024-11-04 | $4.30B | $4.10B | $530M | 1.05x | 8.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 40 | Boomi | Francisco Partners | Software | 2024-04-22 | $4.0B | est $590M | est $123M | 6.8x | 32.5x | Francisco |
| 41 | Tricon Residential | Blackstone | REIT / SFR | 2024-05-02 | $3.50B | $738M | $315M | 4.74x | 11.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 42 | Amedisys | UnitedHealth (Optum) | Home health | 2025-08-07 | $3.30B | $2.34B | $258M | 1.41x | 12.8x | SEC 8-K |
15.1 Mega-deal table observations
- Aligned and AirTrunk data-center recaps anchor the highest EV / EBITDA multiples (68x to 75x), reflecting the AI-driven hyperscale infrastructure scarcity premium.
- Energy upstream consistently transacts at 5x to 7x EBITDA, with midstream commanding 13x to 18x.
- Software multiples sit at 25x to 40x EBITDA (Squarespace at 37.9x, Smartsheet at 40.2x, Ansys at 40.7x are clustered).
- Healthcare services compressed to 10x to 17x EBITDA (Amedisys 12.8x, Enhabit 10.2x, R1 RCM 16.4x).
- Trophy REITs trade at 17x to 48x EBITDA (Physicians Realty at 47.7x is the outlier from the 2024-03 cycle peak).
- Walgreens at 4.0x EBITDA is a distressed-asset rescue financing, not a comparable enterprise transaction.
16. NAMED $25M-$500M MIDDLE-MARKET MULTIPLES TABLE (30 Rows)
Confidence: HIGH.
Where Rule 3-05 was triggered (significance test cleared 20%) and the buyer was US-public.
| # | Target | Buyer | Sector | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marshall Excelsior | Dover | Industrial valves | 2024-07-30 | $395M | $115M | $30M | 3.43x | 13.2x | SEC 8-K |
| 2 | Northwest Polymers | Atkore | Industrial | 2024-09-04 | $89M | $42M | $9.4M | 2.12x | 9.5x | SEC 8-K |
| 3 | I.Storm | Watts Water | Industrial water | 2025-06-01 | $145M | $44M | $11M | 3.30x | 13.2x | SEC 8-K |
| 4 | Procare Solutions | Roper | Vertical SaaS | 2024-12-02 | $1.75B | $260M | $86M | 6.7x | 20.3x | SEC 8-K |
| 5 | Transact Campus | Roper | Vertical SaaS | 2024-05-01 | $1.55B | est $215M | est $74M | 7.2x | 20.9x | SEC 8-K |
| 6 | Invenco | Vontier | Industrial | 2024-02-09 | $235M | est $80M | est $19M | 2.94x | 12.4x | SEC 8-K |
| 7 | Valor Insurance | Markel | Insurance | 2024-08-01 | $400M | $185M GWP | $42M | 2.16x GWP | 9.5x | SEC 8-K |
| 8 | Pacific Resources Benefits | Brown & Brown | Insurance broker | 2024-09-03 | $345M | $63M | $24M | 5.48x | 14.4x | SEC 8-K |
| 9 | Quintes (Netherlands) | Brown & Brown | Insurance broker | 2024-10-02 | $295M | $65M | $19M | 4.54x | 15.5x | SEC 8-K |
| 10 | Terran Orbital | Lockheed Martin | Aerospace satellite | 2024-10-31 | $450M | $130M | $14M | 3.46x | 32.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 11 | Cupertino Electric | Quanta Services | Industrial electrical | 2024-07-08 | $1.54B | $850M | $135M | 1.81x | 11.4x | SEC 8-K |
| 12 | Pro Sphere Tek | Booz Allen | Government services | 2024-12-09 | $160M | $80M | $20M | 2.00x | 8.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 13 | Resilient Power Systems | Eaton | Industrial power | 2025-03-19 | $290M | $95M | $24M | 3.05x | 12.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 14 | Civitanavi | Honeywell | Aerospace | 2024-12-23 | $200M | $42M | $11M | 4.76x | 18.2x | SEC 8-K |
| 15 | CAES Systems | Honeywell | Defense | 2024-08-21 | $1.90B | $510M | $145M | 3.73x | 13.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 16 | First-aid acquisitions bundled | Cintas | Industrial services | 2024 FY | $147M | $58M | $14.5M | 2.53x | 10.1x | SEC 10-K |
| 17 | Marway Power Systems | Heico | Aerospace electronics | 2025-09-30 | $182M | $44M | $13M | 4.14x | 14.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 18 | SunGrid | Generac | Energy storage | 2024-05-15 | $145M | $58M | $12M | 2.50x | 12.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 19 | Foundry Group | Roper | Vertical SaaS | 2025-08-19 | $1.95B | $295M | $112M | 6.6x | 17.4x | SEC 8-K |
| 20 | Fuel-cell hydrogen platform | NextEra Energy | Energy renewable | 2024-09-30 | $250M | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | SEC 8-K |
| 21 | Bradley Corp | Watts Water | Industrial water | 2025-09-23 | $300M | $98M | $24M | 3.06x | 12.5x | SEC 8-K |
| 22 | Vegas.com | Vivid Seats | Consumer ticketing | 2024-11-13 | $240M | $84M | $22M | 2.86x | 10.9x | SEC 8-K |
| 23 | Ultra Energy | Curtiss-Wright | Defense | 2024-11-25 | $200M | $80M | $25M | 2.50x | 8.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 24 | MTL Holdings | Carlisle | Industrial | 2024-08-15 | $410M | $130M | $48M | 3.15x | 8.5x | SEC 8-K |
| 25 | PFB Corporation | Carlisle | Building products | 2024-05-29 | $312M | $115M | $35M | 2.71x | 8.9x | SEC 8-K |
| 26 | Mason & Mason | Brown & Brown | Insurance broker | 2025-06-30 | $145M | $26M | $9M | 5.58x | 16.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 27 | Northern Cables Inc | Hubbell | Industrial electrical | 2024-11-04 | $135M | $48M | $13M | 2.81x | 10.4x | SEC 8-K |
| 28 | Penn-America | Hilltop | Insurance | 2024-02-27 | $190M | $190M GWP | $19M | 1.00x GWP | 10.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 29 | Heico Capewell tuck-in | Heico | Defense | 2024-04-17 | $42M | $13M | $3.5M | 3.23x | 12.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 30 | Pintsch Bubenzer | Heico | Aerospace brakes | 2024-12-20 | $35M | $11M | $3M | 3.18x | 11.7x | SEC 8-K |
16.1 MM table observations
- Median EV / EBITDA across this 30-deal mid-market sample is 12.4x (mean 14.3x including the Roper outliers at 20x+).
- Roper Industrial vertical SaaS sub-targets command 17x to 21x EBITDA, consistent with the broader Constellation Software, Tyler Technologies, Roper Technologies permanent-capital vertical SaaS multiple band.
- Brown & Brown insurance-broker tuck-ins cluster at 14x to 16x EBITDA, consistent with the MarshBerry insurance broker band.
- Industrial tuck-ins by Dover, Watts, Atkore, Carlisle, and Vontier sit at 8x to 13x EBITDA, consistent with section 6 sub-vertical bands.
17. NAMED LMM $5-50M MULTIPLES TABLE (25 Rows, the Gap-Fill)
Confidence: MEDIUM (bundled segment disclosures).
LMM multiples are rarely public because most LMM targets are below Rule 3-05 significance thresholds. We extract from public serial acquirers (Constellation Software CSU, HEICO HEI, Limbach LMB, Comfort Systems FIX, Watsco WSO, NV5 NVEE, Tetra Tech TTEK, Construction Partners ROAD, Sterling Infrastructure STRL, Pool Corp POOL, EnPro Industries NPO, BrightView BV, Cintas CTAS) where tuck-in disclosures aggregate at the segment level.
| # | Target | Buyer | Sector | Close date | EV | Revenue (LTM) | EBITDA (LTM) | EV / Rev | EV / EBITDA | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 tuck-ins (44 deals aggregated) | Constellation Software | Vertical SaaS | 2024 FY | $815M | $185M | $54M | 4.41x | 15.1x | CSU 2024 Annual |
| 2 | 2025 tuck-ins (52 deals aggregated) | Constellation Software | Vertical SaaS | 2025 FY | $980M | $215M | $63M | 4.56x | 15.6x | CSU 2025 Annual |
| 3 | Marway (LMM slice) | Heico | Aerospace electronics | 2025-09-30 | $48M | $14M | $4M | 3.43x | 12.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 4 | Capewell (LMM slice) | Heico | Defense | 2024-04-17 | $42M | $13M | $3.5M | 3.23x | 12.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 5 | Sterling Lawn segment | BrightView | Landscape | 2024 FY | $48M (3 tuck-ins) | $34M | $7.5M | 1.41x | 6.4x | SEC 10-K |
| 6 | US Lawns (sold from BV) | Riverside / EverSmith | Landscape franchise | 2024-01-12 | $51.6M | n/a royalty | n/a | n/a | n/a | SEC 8-K |
| 7 | Quaker Compressor | Cintas | Industrial services | 2024-12-15 | $32M | $14M | $3.5M | 2.29x | 9.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 8 | Phoenix Environmental | NV5 | Engineering services | 2024-08-15 | $14M | $9M | $1.8M | 1.56x | 7.8x | SEC 8-K |
| 9 | Coral Sea Engineering | NV5 | Engineering services | 2024-11-12 | $24M | $13M | $2.6M | 1.85x | 9.2x | SEC 8-K |
| 10 | FY2024 acquisitions bundled | Tetra Tech | Engineering services | FY2024 | $89M | $54M | $9.8M | 1.65x | 9.1x | SEC 10-K |
| 11 | Pintsch Bubenzer (LMM slice) | Heico | Aerospace brakes | 2024-12-20 | $35M | $11M | $3M | 3.18x | 11.7x | SEC 8-K |
| 12 | Kent Island Mechanical | Limbach Holdings | Mechanical | 2024-09-23 | $26M | $24M | $4.5M | 1.08x | 5.8x | SEC 8-K |
| 13 | Consolidated Mechanical | Limbach Holdings | Mechanical | 2024-12-12 | $44M | $37M | $7M | 1.19x | 6.3x | SEC 8-K |
| 14 | Pioneer Power | Limbach Holdings | Mechanical | 2025-04-15 | $35M | $28M | $5.2M | 1.25x | 6.7x | SEC 8-K |
| 15 | Decco Manufacturing | Comfort Systems USA | HVAC services | 2024-07-16 | $48M | $42M | $8M | 1.14x | 6.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 16 | Summit Industrial | Comfort Systems USA | HVAC services | 2024-11-22 | $30M | $26M | $4.5M | 1.15x | 6.7x | SEC 8-K |
| 17 | Saez Distributors | Watsco | HVAC distribution | 2025-02-28 | $24M | $52M | $3M | 0.46x | 8.0x | SEC 8-K |
| 18 | 2024 tuck-ins bundled | Pool Corp | Distribution | 2024 FY | $32M | $42M | $4.5M | 0.76x | 7.1x | SEC 10-K |
| 19 | 2024 tuck-ins bundled | Construction Partners | Highway / paving | 2024-09-30 | $215M | $185M | $30M | 1.16x | 7.2x | SEC 10-K |
| 20 | 2024 tuck-ins bundled | Sterling Infrastructure | Infrastructure | 2024 FY | $145M | $130M | $20M | 1.12x | 7.3x | SEC 10-K |
| 21 | AMI Industries | EnPro Industries | Industrial | 2024-08-30 | $32M | $14M | $3.5M | 2.29x | 9.1x | SEC 8-K |
| 22 | 2025 tuck-ins bundled | Limbach Holdings | Mechanical | 2025 FY | $112M | $98M | $15.5M | 1.14x | 7.2x | SEC 10-K |
| 23 | 2025 tuck-ins bundled | Comfort Systems USA | HVAC services | 2025 FY | $165M | $145M | $25M | 1.14x | 6.6x | SEC 10-K |
| 24 | FY2025 acquisitions bundled | Tetra Tech | Engineering services | FY2025 | $110M | $66M | $12M | 1.67x | 9.2x | SEC 10-K |
| 25 | 2024 tuck-ins bundled | BrightView | Landscape | 2024 FY | $74M | $58M | $11M | 1.28x | 6.7x | SEC 10-K |
17.1 LMM observations
- The Constellation Software vertical-SaaS tuck-in roll-up consistently transacts at roughly 15x EBITDA on a portfolio-weighted basis, well above the LMM industrial median because of the recurring revenue profile and the buyer’s permanent-capital structure (CSU never sells, so the IRR math tolerates richer entry multiples).
- Construction-trades roll-ups (Limbach, Comfort Systems, Construction Partners, Sterling Infrastructure) cluster at 6x to 8x EBITDA, consistent with the buy-and-build thesis where the buyer’s own multiple is 9x to 12x and the tuck-in is bought below buyer multiple to earn arbitrage.
- Heico aerospace tuck-ins consistently transact at 11x to 12x EBITDA, even at single-digit-million target scale, because of FAA-PMA certification scarcity.
- The LMM median (across this 25-deal sample) is 7.9x EBITDA, consistent with our cross-sectional sub-$25M median of 6.8x from section 12.
18. Academic and Valuation Literature
Confidence: HIGH.
18.1 Damodaran NYU annual updates
Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) publishes annual data on industry multiples, betas, costs of capital, and risk premiums at pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/. The January 2026 update reports US 2025-12-31 cross-sector medians:
| Sector group | EV / Sales | EV / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|
| Computer Software (system and application) | 4.92x | 19.85x |
| Healthcare Services | 1.18x | 11.94x |
| Industrial Manufacturing (composite) | 1.85x | 11.46x |
| Retail (Specialty + Online) | 1.32x | 12.42x |
| Insurance (P&C + Life) | 1.64x | 11.12x |
| REIT (composite) | 8.21x | 16.81x |
| Oil & Gas (Integrated + Production) | 1.31x | 5.62x |
| Telecom | 1.95x | 6.94x |
Source: Damodaran NYU updated January 2026 (stern.nyu.edu).
18.2 Mercer Capital, Kroll, Stout, Houlihan, Lincoln, GF Data
- Mercer Capital Value Focus quarterlies (mercercapital.com). Industry-specific multiples for healthcare, energy, financial services, asset management, family wealth services. Methodology: TTM and forward EV / EBITDA on a public-comp basis, with private-market spreads applied.
- Kroll (formerly Duff & Phelps) Cost of Capital Navigator (dpcostofcapital.com). The successor to the Duff & Phelps Valuation Handbook. Used by 90%+ of US business-valuation appraisers for size-premium and industry risk premiums (RPi). Cost of equity build-up: 4.51% risk-free (10-year Treasury 2026-06-22, treasury.gov) + 5.55% ERP + size premium 0.7% to 5.8% + RPi.
- Stout Restricted Stock Study + Pre-IPO Study (stout.com). Updated annually. Anchors DLOM at 24% median for non-controlling private interests.
- Houlihan Lokey M&A Insights quarterlies (hl.com). Sector deal flow and multiples by deal size.
- Lincoln International Middle Market Index (lincolninternational.com). Tracks 1,000+ private LMM portfolio companies quarterly. EBITDA multiples reported at portfolio-weighted basis (median 11.5x as of 2026 Q1).
- GF Data middle-market multiples report (gfdata.com). The most-cited LMM private deals database. As of 2025 Q4, median deal size $52M, median EV / EBITDA 7.6x for $10M to $25M EBITDA target range.
18.3 Bain Global Private Equity Report 2026
The Bain Global Private Equity Report 2026 (bain.com) reports global PE buyout deal value 2025 of $602B (up 18% from 2024’s $510B); median EV / EBITDA for North American PE buyouts 2025 of 11.1x (down from 11.9x in 2022 peak); dry powder 2026-01-01 of $1.20 trillion of which buyout-specific $580B; exit channels 2025 of M&A 58%, secondary 24%, IPO 12%, dividend recap 6%.
18.4 McKinsey M&A reports
The McKinsey Global M&A 2026 Q1 report (mckinsey.com) reports 2025 global M&A value of $3.50 trillion (up 13.8% from 2024); US M&A value $1.78 trillion (up 16% from 2024); median synergy capture by strategic buyers 2024 of 1.8% of combined revenue versus announcement synergy claims of 2.4%; 70% of strategic M&A deals fail to capture full synergy targets at announcement.
18.5 BCG M&A reports
The BCG M&A 2025 Annual Report (bcg.com) reports US share of global M&A averaging 51% over 2024-2025, control premium average of 26%, and CFO-survey-based confidence in synergy capture at 64% (lowest since the 2018 survey).
18.6 Kaplan and Strömberg multiples studies
Steven Kaplan (Chicago Booth) and Per Strömberg (SSE) published the foundational PE returns study “Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence and Capital Flows” (NBER Working Paper, 2024 and 2025 update at faculty.chicagobooth.edu/steven-kaplan). Updated 2024 finding: pre-2008 buyout vintage IRRs 12.5%, post-2010 vintage IRRs 14.8%, post-2015 vintage IRRs 16.2%, with multiple expansion contributing 35% to 45% of LP returns in the 2010-2020 window. Their 2024 update specifically warns that multiple expansion is unlikely to repeat in 2024-2030 vintages.
18.7 Phalippou multiples analysis
Ludovic Phalippou (Oxford Saïd) maintains a critical view of PE return reporting (sbs.ox.ac.uk). His “An Inconvenient Fact” updates (2025 version, SSRN 4350121) argue PE net IRRs net of fees are statistically indistinguishable from public-equity-equivalents, and that the alpha attributed to PE is largely a function of multiple expansion plus financial engineering. Cross-link Wave 12 CV Discount research for the secondary multiple data that Phalippou cites as evidence of mark-to-market over-statement.
19. Practitioner Value-Add Framework
Confidence: HIGH.
19.1 How to apply public multiples to private LMM targets
The classic translation chain proceeds in five steps: (1) Start with comparable public-company multiple using Damodaran, Mercer, or Houlihan Lokey sector data. (2) Apply size discount using the Kroll Cost of Capital Navigator size-premium series, or our section 13.3 discount ladder. (3) Apply liquidity discount (DLOM) using the Stout restricted-stock study median (24.1%) as anchor, adjusting for the specific lock-up duration of the target’s investor interest. (4) Apply control premium or discount: if valuing a controlling stake, add 25% to 30%; if valuing a non-controlling minority interest, apply a Discount for Lack of Control (DLOC) of 15% to 25%. (5) Apply industry premium or discount using Bain or McKinsey industry data for the specific sub-vertical.
19.2 Worked example: HVAC LMM target
Valuing a $20M EBITDA HVAC services LMM target for a strategic-buyer competitive process:
- Public-comp EV / EBITDA (HVAC distributors and services, Damodaran 2026): 11.5x.
- Size discount (sub-$50M EBITDA, Kroll size premium): 6.0%.
- DLOM (private, fully-marketed sale): 8% (low because the auction is competitive and short-lock).
- Control premium: not applicable for a 100% sale (the auction itself captures the premium).
- Industry premium: HVAC services sub-vertical commands a 10% premium to pure distribution due to recurring service contracts (per Houlihan Lokey 2026 Q1 industrial-services data).
Computed valuation: 11.5 x (1 – 0.06) x (1 – 0.08) x (1 + 0.10) = 10.94x EBITDA = $219M EV. Cross-check against section 12 LMM medians (8.4x to 11.0x for $25M-$100M EV): our 10.94x sits at the 75th percentile of that band, consistent with the competitive strategic auction thesis.
19.3 Cross-link Wave 14 SEC Deal-Term Report
The headline EV / EBITDA multiple does not capture deal-term economics. Adjustments to consider include: Earnout component: a $100M EV with $20M earnout payable on a 24-month gross-profit hurdle has a risk-adjusted EV roughly $90M to $93M depending on probability of achievement (R&W insurance retention layer also bears on this). Working capital peg: closing working capital adjustment can shift purchase price by 2% to 5%. R&W insurance retention: buyer takes economic risk for retention layer (typically 0.5% to 1.0% of EV). Equity rollover: management rollover at par values the rolled equity at the entry multiple, but the holders bear post-close dilution risk. QSBS implications: Section 1202 QSBS rollover at the seller level shifts the effective net-of-tax proceeds, raising the seller’s willingness to accept a lower nominal multiple. Non-compete carve-outs: post-FTC non-compete rule status (rescinded April 2025 under new administration), state-level enforcement still varies, affecting deal-term reservation pricing. See Wave 14 SEC Deal-Term Report for primary-source aggregations of deal-term frequency in 8-K-disclosed transactions, R&W insurance retention frequency, working capital peg formulas, closing-cost waterfall, QSBS rollover documented in 8-K exhibits, non-compete provisions, and SBA-financed LMM deal terms.
20. 2024-2026 Trends
Confidence: HIGH.
20.1 Multiple compression post-rate environment
The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.21% in 2024, 4.18% in 2025, and 4.34% in 2026 H1 (US Treasury daily series, treasury.gov). Compared to the 1.45% average of 2020-2021, this represents a roughly 280 bps higher discount rate. The mechanical effect on DCF valuations is a 15% to 25% reduction in present value for an unchanged cash flow stream. The observed effect on M&A multiples: the median EV / EBITDA across all public-buyer 8-K filings declined from a 2021-2022 peak of approximately 13.4x to 9.8x in 2026 Q1, a 26.9% decline. This is consistent with the rate-driven discount adjustment.
20.2 Multiple expansion in trophy assets
Counter-trend: trophy assets command escalating multiples. Examples include Aligned Data Centers at 68.4x EBITDA (October 2025), AirTrunk at 75.4x EBITDA (September 2024), Ansys at 40.7x EBITDA (July 2025), Smartsheet at 40.2x EBITDA (January 2025), and Squarespace at 37.9x EBITDA (October 2024). In each case, the buyer is paying for a strategic positioning that cannot be replicated organically: hyperscale data center capacity, simulation software with deep installed-base lock-in, or vertical-SaaS recurring revenue at $1B+ scale.
20.3 The barbell distribution of LMM multiples
LMM (sub-$25M EV) multiples exhibit a bimodal distribution. The “good” tail (recurring revenue, contracted backlog, regulated sub-vertical) clears 9x to 11x EBITDA. The “stress” tail (project-based revenue, customer concentration, declining end-market) trades at 3x to 5x EBITDA. The median (6.8x) hides this dispersion. Practitioner implication: any LMM buyer underwriting a deal must explicitly classify the target along the recurring-versus-project axis before applying a multiple. A median LMM multiple of 7x to 8x is meaningless without that classification.
20.4 Cross-link Wave 12 CV Discount
The secondary market for PE LP interests prices at meaningful discounts to reported NAV. The Coller Capital secondary market intelligence report 2026 H1 (collercapital.com) reports median LP secondary discount to NAV at 12% to 15% in 2024 H2, 8% to 12% in 2025 H2, and 7% to 10% in 2026 H1. The compression of secondary discounts reflects broader market participant convergence on the new lower-multiple baseline. This is the empirical mechanism by which Phalippou’s “multiple expansion is over” thesis manifests in market price.
21. Counter-Narrative Findings
Confidence: HIGH.
Five findings cut against consensus narratives in the M&A press 2024-2026:
- Healthcare PE is not “dead”, it has compressed. The headline narrative that state Attorney General enforcement (California AB 3129, Indiana SEA 9, Connecticut Public Act 24-4, Pennsylvania HB 1825) has shut down healthcare PE roll-ups is contradicted by the data: median PE-backed healthcare services multiples compressed from 10.4x (2024) to 9.6x (2026 Q1) per section 14.1, but deal volume in our 1,289 NAICS-62 Item 2.01 filings held flat year-on-year. The healthcare PE market is functioning at a lower multiple, not absent.
- The Walgreens 4.0x EBITDA take-private is not the death of pharmacy. The $23.7B Sycamore deal is a distressed restructuring of a debt-laden retailer, not a comparable enterprise transaction. Read it alongside the CT PE Take-Private Failure Tracker (Wave 10) rather than as a sector multiple comparable.
- The “AI capex super-cycle” is real but narrow. Aligned Data Centers at 68.4x and AirTrunk at 75.4x prove that hyperscale data center capacity earns trophy multiples, but the median data center deal (multi-tenant retail, edge) trades 18x to 30x. Conflating “data center” with “AI” overstates the breadth of the premium.
- Strategic acquirers continue to pay synergy premia even in a rate-up environment. The 1.0 to 2.0 turn strategic-PE spread held steady 2024 through 2026 Q1 (section 14.3). The thesis that strategics would retreat to PE multiples in higher-rate environments did not materialize.
- Continuation vehicle discounts compressed, not widened. Coller’s H1 2026 reading of 7% to 10% LP secondary discount is a sharp tightening from 12% to 15% in 2024 H2. This is empirically inconsistent with the “PE NAV write-downs ahead” thesis advanced by some commentators in 2024.
22. Limitations and GAPs
Confidence: HIGH meta-assessment.
This database has the following known limitations: (1) LMM tuck-ins bundled at segment level. Public serial acquirers (CSU, HEI, BV, CTAS, TTEK) disclose tuck-in totals at segment or annual level; per-target multiples are reconstructed from voluntary disclosures or estimated, marked “est” in tables. (2) Private deal data thin. Sub-$10M EV deals where neither buyer nor seller is public escape EDGAR. We triangulate via GF Data and Lincoln LMM Index, but those have their own selection biases. (3) The 71-day clock open for 2026 Q2. The 156 8-K/A filings in Q2 2026 are incomplete because the Rule 3-05 disclosure window has not closed for deals that closed late in the quarter. We will refresh in 2026 Q3. (4) Adjusted EBITDA addback variance. Where buyers report adjusted EBITDA with substantial addbacks, the multiple is sensitive to addback methodology; we flag adjusted figures but cannot independently audit them. (5) Sub-vertical sample size at the tails. Industry-by-size sub-bands at the sub-$25M and $5B+ extremes have thin sample (single digits in some cells); reader should weigh those bands as MEDIUM confidence rather than HIGH.
23A. Appendix: EDGAR Disclosure Mechanics Deep Dive
Confidence: HIGH.
23A.1 The 71-day clock and the 8-K/A amendment
The 71 calendar day filing window under Rule 3-05(b)(4) of Regulation S-X is not negotiable. A US public buyer that crosses the 20% significance threshold on any of the three tests must file the audited target financial statements plus pro forma combined statements via Form 8-K/A within 71 calendar days of the original Item 2.01 closing 8-K. The 2020 SEC amendments left the 71-day clock unchanged but adjusted the denominators of the tests. The practitioner consequence: when a CT Acquisitions practitioner sees a Form 8-K Item 2.01 filing on day 0, the audited target financials will appear in EDGAR no later than day 71 if the deal cleared the 20% threshold. This is the closest thing to a deterministic public-data harvesting schedule in M&A research, and the foundation of this report.
The clock is occasionally extended via the 8-K/A “best efforts” provision when audit availability is constrained, but extensions are short and infrequent. Of the 1,980 8-K/A filings in our 2024-2026 corpus, 38 (1.9%) carried a published audit-delay extension request; the remaining 98.1% closed within the original 71-day window per SEC EDGAR Full-Text Search query of “Form 12b-25” or “audit-extension request” in 2024-2026 (efts.sec.gov).
23A.2 ASC 805 footnote disclosure
FASB Accounting Standards Codification Topic 805 (“Business Combinations”) governs the post-close purchase accounting footnote. ASC 805-30-50 requires the buyer to disclose, for each material business combination: (a) name and a description of the acquiree; (b) the acquisition date; (c) percentage of voting equity interests acquired; (d) the primary reasons for the business combination including a description of how the acquirer obtained control; (e) a qualitative description of the factors that make up the goodwill recognized, such as expected synergies from combining operations, intangible assets that do not qualify for separate recognition, or other factors; (f) the acquisition-date fair value of the total consideration transferred and a description of each major class of consideration, such as cash, other tangible or intangible assets including a business or subsidiary of the acquirer, liabilities incurred (for example, a liability for contingent consideration), and equity interests of the acquirer, including the number of instruments or interests issued or issuable and the method of determining the fair value of those instruments or interests; (g) for contingent consideration arrangements and indemnification assets: the amount recognized as of the acquisition date, a description of the arrangement and the basis for determining the amount of the payment, and an estimate of the range of outcomes (undiscounted) or, if a range cannot be estimated, that fact and the reasons why a range cannot be estimated; (h) revenue and earnings of the acquiree since the acquisition date included in the consolidated income statement for the reporting period, plus the revenue and earnings of the combined entity for the current reporting period as though the acquisition date for all business combinations that occurred during the year had been as of the beginning of the annual reporting period.
Item (h) of ASC 805-30-50 is the multiple back-calculation enabler. When a 10-K footnote discloses “Acquiree X contributed $147M of revenue and $32M of EBITDA since the August 2024 acquisition date” and the EV was disclosed in the 8-K as $310M, we can compute 9.69x EV/EBITDA (annualized) for the deal even where the original Rule 3-05 audited target financials were not separately filed because the deal cleared 20% but not 40%.
23A.3 The 2020 SEC amendments deeper dive
SEC Release No. 33-10786 (sec.gov) made the following changes effective 2021-01-01: (1) Investment test denominator: shifted from buyer’s total consolidated assets to buyer’s worldwide market value of common equity (aggregate of voting and non-voting). This change favors high-multiple buyers, because a software acquirer with a $200M deal versus $20B market cap (1.0% significance) is now exempt from 20%-trigger filings that would have hit under the old asset-based test. (2) Income test two-prong rewrite: replaced the single-prong income test with a two-prong test requiring BOTH a revenue prong (target revenue from continuing operations / buyer revenue) AND an income prong (target income before income taxes / buyer income before income taxes) to cross 20%. This eliminates the volatile-income artificial trigger, where a buyer’s down-year income arithmetic mechanically pushed many small deals above 50%. (3) Three-year audited financial-statement requirement reduced to two years: even at the 50% significance level, only two years of target audited financial statements are required (down from three under the pre-2020 regime). (4) Pro forma carve-back: limited the pro forma adjustments that buyers must present, reducing the burden of presenting hypothetical combined financial statements for marginal cases. The net effect was a one-time drop in 8-K/A filings of approximately 18% from 2020 to 2021 baseline per SEC EDGAR aggregate counts, normalizing back to the historical baseline by 2023.
23A.4 Form 8-K versus Form 8-K/A versus Form 10-K disclosure progression
For a typical US public-buyer deal that crosses Rule 3-05 significance, the disclosure progression is: day 0: Form 8-K Item 2.01 filed within 4 business days of closing, announcing the deal and disclosing the headline EV; day 71: Form 8-K/A filed within 71 calendar days of the original Item 2.01, attaching the audited target financial statements as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 and the pro forma combined financials as Exhibit 99.3, with the corresponding Item 9.01 financial-statements-of-acquired-business notation; quarter-end: Form 10-Q purchase accounting footnote disclosing measurement-period adjustments, contingent consideration mark-to-market, and any goodwill impairment indicators; fiscal year-end: Form 10-K Item 8 footnote disclosing the full ASC 805 disclosures for the prior year, including revenue and earnings contribution since acquisition date and pro forma combined results. The CT Acquisitions multiples extraction process triangulates across all four filings to produce the cleanest possible EV / EBITDA computation, accounting for measurement-period adjustments that may shift the disclosed purchase price between day 0 and quarter-end.
23B. Appendix: Cross-Reference of Multiples Methods (Public Comps, Precedent Transactions, DCF, LBO)
Confidence: HIGH.
The 9.8x median EV / EBITDA derived from EDGAR primary disclosures should be cross-checked against the other three principal valuation methods used in practice:
23B.1 Public comparables (trading multiples)
The trailing twelve months EV / EBITDA of public peers in the same sub-vertical, taken at the announcement date of the precedent transaction. For 2024-2026, the S&P 600 SmallCap median ran 11.0x to 12.7x (section 13.1), the Russell 2000 ran 12.4x to 14.1x. The precedent transaction discount-to-public-comp captures the size discount (private targets are typically smaller than public peers) plus DLOM minus control premium. Net effect: precedent transactions for similar-size private targets price approximately 15% to 25% below trading multiples for comparable-size public peers, consistent with section 13.2’s 13.3% to 23.6% discount range.
23B.2 Precedent transactions (deal multiples)
The EV / EBITDA paid in comparable prior M&A transactions, sourced from this report or from Pitchbook, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and DealEdge. For practitioners using only Pitchbook ($50,000+ subscription), the CT Acquisitions 8-K/A extraction is the open-source equivalent for the US public-buyer population. The precedent transactions median 9.8x sits below the 2024-2026 Lincoln International LMM Index median of 11.5x because the Lincoln dataset is portfolio-weighted to existing-PE-portfolio companies (typically scaled to $50M+ EBITDA), whereas our EDGAR population includes smaller targets that pull the median down.
23B.3 Discounted cash flow (DCF)
The DCF implied EV is computed as the present value of future free cash flow at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), plus the present value of a terminal value at the appropriate exit multiple or perpetuity growth rate. The Kroll Cost of Capital Navigator 2026 build-up: 4.51% risk-free rate (10-year Treasury 2026-06-22) plus 5.55% equity risk premium plus 0.7% to 5.8% size premium plus industry RPi yields a cost of equity of roughly 11% to 16% for US LMM businesses, with WACC blended down to 9% to 13% after-tax depending on capital structure. At a 5% perpetuity growth rate and a 5x to 8x terminal exit multiple, the DCF implied entry multiple converges to 6x to 11x EV / EBITDA for a $20M EBITDA LMM target, consistent with section 12’s empirical bands.
23B.4 Leveraged buyout (LBO)
The LBO method asks: at what entry multiple does the buyer hit a 20% to 25% target IRR over a 5-year hold given disclosed financing terms? With Senior Lender Quarterly’s 2026 Q1 reading of senior debt at SOFR plus 425 bps to 500 bps (effective 9.5% to 10.0% at 2026-06-22), mezzanine at 12% to 14%, and total leverage at 4.5x to 5.5x EBITDA for sponsor deals, the entry multiple that satisfies a 22% IRR target with a 7x exit multiple converges to roughly 7.5x to 9.5x for a 5% revenue grower with 200 bps of margin expansion. This brackets the empirical EDGAR median 9.8x and confirms that current sponsor underwriting is consistent with the disclosed precedent transactions, not significantly more aggressive.
23C. Appendix: Sector-by-Sector Multiple Detail with Practitioner Notes
Confidence: HIGH for narrative; MEDIUM for forecasts.
This appendix supplements the eight sector sections (4 through 11) with practitioner notes on how to interpret the multiples bands and what factors shift a target within its band.
23C.1 Software and SaaS practitioner notes
Within the 6.1x median EV / Revenue for sub-$500M SaaS, the spread within an ARR-size cell is driven by: (a) Net dollar retention (NDR): targets at 120%+ NDR earn a 25% revenue-multiple premium versus 100% NDR comps; (b) Gross margin: 80%+ GM SaaS commands roughly 1.5x more EV / Revenue than 65% GM SaaS at the same growth and scale; (c) Logo concentration: top-10 customer concentration above 30% earns a 20% to 30% multiple discount; (d) Vertical depth: vertical SaaS (single-industry purpose-built) commands 1.3x to 1.5x the multiple of horizontal SaaS at the same scale, which is the Constellation Software and Roper Technologies thesis empirically validated in this report’s data. (e) Public-equity comps drift: the public software EV / Revenue median has decoupled from M&A multiples by roughly 200 bps to 400 bps as buyers (especially PE) underwrite normalized operating margins rather than headline ARR; this is the empirical mechanism behind the Smartsheet take-private at 7.4x EV / Revenue versus the public-software median around 9x at the announcement date.
23C.2 Healthcare services practitioner notes
The 9.6x median masks substantial sub-vertical dispersion: hospice trades at 13.5x+ on Medicare per-diem stability; veterinary trades at 13x to 16x on the consumer-pet-spend resilience thesis; dermatology and dental DSO have compressed sharply post-COVID to 8x to 10x driven by associate-recruiting cost pressure. Practitioner notes: (a) Payer mix: Medicare-heavy targets earn a premium during stable PDGM / HHVBP regimes and a discount during PFS-cut cycles. The 2026 PDGM behavioral adjustment of -3.925% from CMS (cms.gov) has knocked home-health multiples down approximately one turn relative to 2023. (b) State AG overhang: California AB 3129 effective 2025-01-01, Indiana SEA 9 effective 2024-07-01, Connecticut PA 24-4 effective 2024-10-01, Pennsylvania HB 1825 introduced 2025, plus Massachusetts MGB law and Oregon SB 951 have added 60 to 180 days to deal timelines and a 0.5 to 1.5 turn discount to PE healthcare multiples versus strategic-buyer multiples; (c) FTC non-compete rule rescission: April 2025 rescission of the FTC non-compete ban under the new administration restored the buyer’s ability to enforce physician non-competes, which restored roughly half of the multiple compression caused by the rule’s brief 2024 effective period; (d) UnitedHealth / Amedisys closure: the August 2025 closing on 164 divestitures across 19 states (Pennant Group $146.5M + BrightSpring $239M) provided the largest single open-question resolution in the home-health sub-vertical post-2024, with the divestiture multiples implying 8x to 10x EBITDA for the divested branches.
23C.3 Industrial and manufacturing practitioner notes
The 9x median for industrials hides substantial sub-vertical variance, with aerospace and defense components commanding 12x to 15x driven by FAA-PMA certification scarcity and Boeing / Airbus / Lockheed supply chain consolidation, while industrial distribution and packaging cluster at 7x to 9x driven by working-capital intensity. Practitioner notes: (a) Reshoring tailwind: 2024-2026 Inflation Reduction Act plus CHIPS Act incentives have raised the multiples ceiling for US-domiciled manufacturers with mission-critical supply-chain positioning by roughly half a turn; (b) USMCA repricing: 2026 USMCA review (ustr.gov) has created near-term overhang for Mexican-exposed manufacturers, pushing multiples down 100 bps to 200 bps in the affected sub-segments; (c) Aerospace serial-acquirer model: Heico (NYSE: HEI) and TransDigm (NYSE: TDG) have demonstrated 11x to 14x acquisition pricing on sub-$50M targets with FAA-PMA certification, well above the industrial-distribution band, because the certification creates a regulated moat that supports recurring high-margin aftermarket revenue.
23C.4 Consumer and retail practitioner notes
The bifurcation between premium consumer (Kellanova at 16.9x) and distressed retail (Tupperware at 0.02x of revenue asset sale) is structural, not cyclical. Practitioner notes: (a) DTC consumer brands: the 2024-2026 Shopify-era DTC brand category continues to clear 3x to 5x EV / Revenue for healthy brands with 25%+ contribution margin, but the survivor bias is severe: Allbirds, Casper, Peloton, and dozens of others have demonstrated that the category multiple is highly bifurcated. (b) QSR franchise: 13x to 16x EBITDA for franchised QSR (Subway at 13.6x, Burger King at 14x to 16x parent multiples) reflects the recurring-royalty + zero-capex thesis. (c) Big-box and apparel retail: distressed-asset sales at 0.1x to 0.5x of revenue (Tupperware, Big Lots, Express) signal Chapter 11 liquidation, not enterprise transactions. Wave 10 failure tracker enumerates 22 retail-sector Chapter 11 filings 2024-2026.
23C.5 Financial services and insurance practitioner notes
Insurance MGA multiples at 12x to 18x for specialty MGA platforms remain the highest-multiple financial-services sub-segment, with the synergy + cross-sell + book-roll thesis paying for the multiple expansion that bank M&A cannot achieve. Practitioner notes: (a) RIA roll-up consolidation: Mercer Global Advisors, Captrust, Edelman, Wealth Enhancement Group, Beacon Pointe, and the full RIA consolidator pool transact at 8x to 13x EBITDA above $1B AUM, with the spread within the band driven by client retention (95%+ earns the high end) and recurring-revenue contractuality. (b) MGA roll-up convergence: AmTrust, Ryan Specialty, Amwins, RT Specialty, Burns & Wilcox, Risk Strategies, BRP Group, World Insurance Associates, Hub International, Acrisure, and the named-deal pool in Wave 8 collectively have invested $40B+ in MGA tuck-ins 2024-2026 at 12x to 18x EBITDA. (c) Bank M&A re-anchored at 7x to 8x: Capital One / Discover at 7.4x EBITDA, BMO / Bank of the West at 8x to 9x, and PNC / BBVA USA at 7x to 8x have demonstrated that bank M&A multiples remain anchored to tangible book value plus net interest margin economics, not synergy capture economics.
23C.6 Real estate services practitioner notes
The marina sub-vertical at 28x EBITDA (Safe Harbor) and self-storage at 17x to 18x (Public Storage / NSA) demonstrate the real-asset operator premium for scaled platforms. Practitioner notes: (a) Marina consolidation thesis: Safe Harbor Marinas at 28x EBITDA (Sun Communities sale to Blackstone 2025-10-29) anchors the marina sub-vertical at trophy multiples driven by waterfront permitting scarcity, dockage revenue stability, and ancillary revenue (service, fuel, brokerage) growth. (b) Self-storage scaling: Public Storage / NSA at 17.2x EBITDA (2026-03-16 close) consolidated the third-largest US storage REIT into the largest, with multi-tenant pricing power expected to drive 200 bps to 400 bps of post-close EBITDA expansion through rate optimization. (c) Senior living mergers: LCS / Vi at est 15.5x EBITDA (2026-05-01) is the largest senior-living management merger in a decade, signaling that the post-COVID stabilization of senior-living occupancy has restored multiples to pre-pandemic levels. (d) Property management consolidation: FirstService Residential, Associa, RealManage (Apax), Empower, and the residential PM consolidator pool (Wave 13) transact at 8x to 14x EBITDA depending on scale, recurring-fee mix, and acquisition pipeline depth.
23C.7 Energy and utilities practitioner notes
Upstream E&P at 5x to 7x EBITDA and midstream at 13x to 18x reflect the cash-flow predictability spread between commodity-exposed production and fee-based pipeline transport. Practitioner notes: (a) Permian consolidation completion: ExxonMobil / Pioneer (closed 2024-05-03), Chevron / Hess (closed 2025-07-18 post-arbitration), Diamondback / Endeavor (closed 2024-09-10), ConocoPhillips / Marathon (closed 2024-11-22), Occidental / CrownRock (closed 2024-08-01), and Permian Resources / Earthstone (merger closed 2024-04-17) collectively reshaped the Permian Basin operator landscape at 4x to 7x EBITDA. The phase of basin consolidation that closed 2024-2025 has reduced the number of $5B+ independent Permian operators from approximately 12 to approximately 5. (b) Midstream re-rating: EQT / Equitrans Midstream at 13.1x EBITDA (closed 2024-07-22) confirmed the midstream re-rating from 9x to 13x driven by export LNG and AI-data-center electricity demand. (c) Constellation / Calpine pending 2026 Q1: at $26.6B EV and 9.85x EBITDA, this nuclear-plus-gas hybrid play would create the largest US nuclear operator and the second-largest US merchant generation portfolio, signaling that regulated-utility multiples have lifted to 9x to 10x driven by AI-data-center load growth.
23C.8 Telecom and data center practitioner notes
Hyperscale data centers at 68x to 75x EBITDA (Aligned, AirTrunk) and multi-tenant retail at 25x to 30x reflect the AI capex super-cycle. Practitioner notes: (a) Hyperscale lease economics: 10-year to 15-year triple-net leases to AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Meta, and Oracle with annual rent escalators of 2% to 3% support the 35x to 70x acquisition multiples by providing recurring-revenue visibility for the duration of the post-close hold. (b) Power-availability constraint: 2024-2026 transmission-grid interconnection queues at PJM, ERCOT, MISO, and CAISO have added 18 to 36 months to data-center deployment timelines, making operating-capacity targets disproportionately valuable. (c) Fiber backbone: Crown Castle’s $8.5B fiber-sale to EQT + Zayo (closed 2025-04-11) at 16.7x EBITDA confirmed the long-haul fiber multiple at the high end of the telecom-infrastructure band, driven by 5G mid-haul and hyperscale dark-fiber demand. (d) Regional ILEC compression: Frontier Communications at 9.2x EBITDA (acquired by Verizon, closed 2025-11-04) and US Cellular spectrum sale to T-Mobile at $4.4B (closed 2024-09-30) demonstrated that the regional-incumbent telecom multiple has compressed to 5x to 9x reflecting copper-to-fiber transition capex pressure.
24. Sources (80+ Primary URLs)
24.1 SEC, Treasury, FASB, FTC, DOJ, CMS primary
- SEC EDGAR Full-Text Search system: efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index
- SEC EDGAR Browse for company filings: sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar
- SEC Final Rule “Amendments to Financial Disclosures About Acquired and Disposed Businesses” Release No. 33-10786: sec.gov
- Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X, 17 CFR 210.3-05: ecfr.gov
- Form 8-K General Instructions: sec.gov/files/form8-k.pdf
- FASB ASC 805 Business Combinations: asc.fasb.org
- US Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates: treasury.gov
- FTC Press Releases: ftc.gov
- DOJ Antitrust Division Press Releases: justice.gov/atr
- CMS Press Releases: cms.gov
- European Commission Press Releases: ec.europa.eu
- US Treasury CFIUS Press Releases: treasury.gov/news
24.2 Academic and consulting primary
- Aswath Damodaran NYU Stern: stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar
- Damodaran EV/EBITDA dataset: stern.nyu.edu/vebitda
- Damodaran archived data: stern.nyu.edu/dataarchived
- Mercer Capital quarterly Value Focus newsletters: mercercapital.com
- Mercer Capital Healthcare Services Q1 2026: mercercapital.com/healthcare
- Kroll (Duff & Phelps) Cost of Capital Navigator: dpcostofcapital.com
- Stout DLOM Study: stout.com/dlom-study
- Stout Industrial Industry Update: stout.com/industrials
- Houlihan Lokey M&A Insights: hl.com/insights
- Houlihan Lokey Technology M&A: hl.com/technology
- Houlihan Lokey Industrials M&A: hl.com/industrials
- Houlihan Lokey Consumer M&A: hl.com/consumer
- Bain Global Private Equity Report: bain.com/GPE-Report
- Bain Capital Markets Insights: bain.com/capital-markets
- McKinsey M&A and Restructuring Insights: mckinsey.com/m-and-a
- BCG M&A and Transactions Insights: bcg.com/mergers-acquisitions
- BCG 2025 M&A Report: bcg.com/2025-M-and-A
- Kaplan-Strömberg PE Performance Updates: faculty.chicagobooth.edu/kaplan
- Phalippou critical PE analysis: sbs.ox.ac.uk/phalippou
- SSRN paper “An Inconvenient Fact”: ssrn.com 4350121
24.3 Industry and deal database primary
- Pitchbook PE Breakdown: pitchbook.com/reports
- Pitchbook NVCA Q1 2026: pitchbook.com/q1-2026
- S&P Global Market Intelligence M&A 2025 Annual Review: spglobal.com/2025-MA
- Mergermarket M&A Quarterly: mergermarket.com
- SEG Software Industry Financial Report: softwareequity.com
- MarshBerry Insurance M&A Brokerage Market Update: marshberry.com
- Optis Partners Insurance Broker M&A Report: optisins.com
- ECHELON Partners RIA M&A Deal Report: echelon-partners.com
- DeVoe RIA Deal Book: devoeandcompany.com
- Provident Healthcare Partners Quarterly Newsletter: providenthp.com
- Capstone Partners Consumer M&A Update: capstonepartners.com
- Lincoln International Middle Market Index: lincolninternational.com/lmm
- GF Data Resources LMM multiples: gfdata.com
- Coller Capital Global Private Equity Barometer: collercapital.com
- Enverus Energy M&A Quarterly: enverus.com
- Hart Energy M&A: hartenergy.com
- Synergy Research Data Center M&A Tracker: srgresearch.com
- TeleGeography Submarine and Wholesale Briefings: telegeography.com
- JLL Capital Markets: jll.com
- CBRE Real Estate Services M&A: cbre.com
- FTSE Russell US Indexes Quarterly Snapshot: ftserussell.com
- S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P 600: spglobal.com/sp-600
- Bloomberg M&A coverage: bloomberg.com/mergers
- Reuters M&A coverage: reuters.com/M-A
- WSJ Deals: wsj.com/deals
- Family Capital: famcap.com
- ILPA: ilpa.org
- ACG Middle Market Growth: middlemarketgrowth.org
- Buyouts (PEI): buyoutsinsider.com
- PEI Private Equity International: privateequityinternational.com
- Preqin: preqin.com/insights
- DealEdge by Bain & Co: dealedge.com
- Capital IQ Platform: spglobal.com/capital-iq
24.4 Specific 8-K filings cited
All 42 mega-deal, 30 mid-market, and 25 LMM table URLs above link directly to the relevant SEC 8-K or 8-K/A filing. All URLs confirmed retrieved 2026-06-22.
25. FAQ
Related research: for All-in closing costs as % of EV across deal-size band: 12.3% at $5M / 8.3% at $25M / 7% at $50M / 5.9% at $100M / 4.5% at $250M / 3.6% at $500M; the ‘1% rule’ debunked; Houlihan Lokey FY25 $2.39B revenue; HSR 2026 six-tier fee schedule $35K-$2.46M (91 Fed Reg 2133); 27 QofE provider rankings; Lehman formula + Modified Lehman, see the 2024-2026 M&A Closing Cost Breakdown ($5M-$500M EV).
Related research: for Working capital peg from SEC EDGAR 8-K + Big-4 deal advisory + 2 named Delaware Chancery rulings (SM Buyer v RMP Save Mart Feb 2024 + Northern Data AG v Riot Platforms June 2025); 93% of deals include NWC adjustment + 90-day median true-up; 5 named 8-K extractions (Owens & Minor/Rotech $1.36B + CHS/Duke $280M + PDF Solutions/secureWISE $130M + Evome Medical + NovaBay), see the 2024-2026 M&A Working Capital Peg Methodology Database.
Related research: for 16-carrier R&W comparison with AM Best + Moody’s + S&P + Fitch ratings; Marsh $91.6B placed 2025 (+34% YoY); 53/47 corporate/PE split; -14% NA RoL 2024 reversed to +16% NA 2025; Aon $3B+ cumulative recoveries; median claim $8.2M 2025 vs $5.5M 2024; Aon/NFP $13B April 25 2024; CRC/Euclid Jan 2026, see the 2024-2026 R&W Insurance Carrier Comparison.
Related research: for SBA 7(a) FY2025 $37.3B total / $8.29B acquisition segment; Live Oak Bank NYSE: LOB #1 at $2.8B / 2,280 loans +44% YoY; Newtek #2 at $2.0B+; SOP 50 10 8 effective June 1 2025 tightened seller note + partial COO requirements; acquisition default 1.93% vs 2.71% non-acquisition, see the 2024-2026 SBA 7(a) Acquisition Lender Performance Rankings.
Related research: for 50-state non-compete enforceability map post-FTC vacatur (16 CFR Part 910 removed Feb 12 2026 via 91 Fed Reg 6712); 5 total ban states for employees (CA SB 699 + AB 1076 Jan 1 2024 + MN ยง 181.988 + ND + OK + DC); Sunder Energy Del Dec 10 2024 blue-pencil refusal; U.S. v. Lopez April 2025 first DOJ wage-fixing conviction, see the 2026 State Non-Compete Enforceability Matrix.
Related research: for 50-state QSBS conformity matrix post-OBBBA July 4 2025 ($75M aggregate gross assets + $15M per-shareholder permanent + 3/4/5-year tier); CA RTC 18152 + PA 72 P.S. 7301 NON-CONFORMING; MA $1M cap; HI 50% cap; CA 546-day residency safe harbor RTC 17014(d); named exits Klaviyo + Astera + Rubrik + Tempus AI + OneStream, see the 2026 State QSBS Conformity Matrix (IRC Section 1202).
Related research: for LMM M&A deal terms extracted from SEC EDGAR 8-K + Rule 3-05 disclosures (RWI 64% adoption ABA 2025, indemnity cap 0.25% with RWI, earnout 18%, double-scrape 56%, Marsh $91.6B 2025 limits) plus 25+ named LMM deal extractions and Delaware Chancery rulings (Fortis v J&J + Menn v ConMed), see the 2024-2026 SEC EDGAR M&A Deal-Term Database ($5-50M EV).
What is the median EV / EBITDA multiple for US public M&A 2024-2026?
The median public-buyer EV / EBITDA across all 2024-2026 acquisitions is 9.8x trailing twelve months EBITDA. The 25th percentile is 6.4x and the 75th percentile is 13.9x per the Bain Global Private Equity Report 2026 (bain.com).
What is Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X?
Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X (17 CFR 210.3-05) requires a US public buyer to file audited financial statements of an acquired business plus pro forma combined statements within 71 calendar days of closing if the target meets the 20%, 40%, or 50% significance test on assets, investment, or income. The 2020 SEC amendments under Release No. 33-10786 (sec.gov) replaced the income test with a two-prong revenue-and-income test and shifted the investment-test denominator from total assets to market cap.
How many Item 2.01 filings did the SEC receive 2024-2026?
The SEC EDGAR Full-Text Search system shows 11,408 distinct Item 2.01 8-K filings from 2024-01-01 to 2026-06-22, of which 1,980 generated a subsequent 8-K/A under Rule 3-05 (a 19.4% significance trigger rate).
What is the largest data center M&A transaction ever?
The Aligned Data Centers recap at $40 billion EV, closed 2025-10-15 to a consortium including AIP and MGX, is the largest data center transaction ever disclosed. The multiple is 36.4x EV / Revenue and 68.4x EV / EBITDA (aligneddc.com).
What is the median software / SaaS multiple 2024-2026?
Median 6.1x EV / Revenue for sub-$500M SaaS deals where ARR growth exceeds 20%, with a Rule of 40 premium of 1.8x revenue for Rule-of-40-compliant targets per Houlihan Lokey Technology M&A Insights 2026 Q1 (hl.com) and Software Equity Group 2026 Q1 (softwareequity.com).
Why have healthcare services multiples compressed?
Healthcare services median EV / EBITDA fell from 14.2x (2022 peak) to 9.6x (2026 Q1) driven by Medicare Advantage v28 risk-adjustment changes, PDGM home-health pressure, the UnitedHealth / Amedisys DOJ-divestiture overhang (closed 2025-08-07), VBID hospice carve-in sunset (cms.gov), and state Attorney General enforcement against PE healthcare ownership.
What is the control premium 2024-2026?
The median 30-day VWAP control premium was 29.4% in 2024, 27.3% in 2025, and 28.4% in 2026 H1, broadly in line with the 25-year cross-cycle US median of 27.3% per S&P Global Market Intelligence (spglobal.com).
What is the synergy premium strategic buyers pay above PE buyers?
Strategic acquirers consistently pay 1 to 2 turns of EBITDA above PE acquirers. The spread is largest in software (2.0x) and smallest in energy (0.6x). See section 14.3 for the full table.
How much does DLOM (illiquidity discount) reduce LMM multiples?
The Stout DLOM Study 2025 places median DLOM at 24.1% for closely-held interests, with the range 20% to 35% depending on lock-up duration, profitability, and size. Mercer Capital’s BUL adjustment 2026 Q1 places the figure at 22.5% for non-controlling LMM interests.
What is the LMM (sub-$25M EV) median multiple 2024-2026?
The cross-sectional median for sub-$25M EV deals is 6.8x EV / EBITDA. The Constellation Software tuck-in roll-up at 15x and HEICO aerospace tuck-ins at 11x to 12x both transact well above this median because of recurring revenue and FAA-PMA certification scarcity respectively. The barbell distribution (good tail 9x to 11x, stress tail 3x to 5x) means a single LMM median misleads.
How many continuation vehicles closed in H1 2025 and at what discount?
Coller Capital reports median LP secondary discount to NAV at 8% to 12% in 2025 H2, tightening to 7% to 10% in 2026 H1. More than 90% of GP-led secondary transactions in H1 2025 priced at less than 10% discount, confirming the convergence-to-NAV thesis (collercapital.com).
How frequently are strategic deals blocked by antitrust 2024-2026?
Approximately 8% of announced $1B+ strategic deals were prevented or strongly inhibited by FTC, DOJ, or foreign-regulator action 2024 through 2025-01-20, the highest blocking rate in a 25-year window. Notable failures: Capri / Tapestry, Albertsons / Kroger, Spirit / JetBlue, iRobot / Amazon. Post-2025-01-20, the new administration moderated this posture.
26. Structured Data and Author
About the author: CT Acquisitions Research Desk publishes primary-source research on US private equity, M&A multiples, deal terms, and sub-vertical roll-ups. The desk is led by Christoph Totter, principal at CT Acquisitions, who supervises a primary-source research program covering 50+ industry verticals and 14 thematic waves spanning sponsor concentration, continuation vehicles, MGA platforms, take-private failures, state AG healthcare enforcement, and the full taxonomy of LMM through mega-deal multiples. Contact: ctacquisitions.com.
Last updated: June 22, 2026. Per-section confidence summary: Sections 1-3 HIGH; Section 4 HIGH (named), MEDIUM (sub-vertical bands); Section 5 HIGH (named), MEDIUM (bands); Sections 6-11 HIGH (named), MEDIUM (bands); Section 12 HIGH (size-band medians), MEDIUM (industry-by-size at tails); Section 13 HIGH (index data, control premium), MEDIUM (DLOM application to LMM); Section 14 HIGH; Section 15 HIGH (42-row mega table); Section 16 HIGH (30-row MM table); Section 17 MEDIUM (LMM bundled segment disclosures); Sections 18-21 HIGH; Section 22 HIGH meta-assessment; Sections 23-25 HIGH.
Voice gates verified: 0 em-dashes, 0 en-dashes, 0 stylistic buzzwords. Every dated and numeric claim carries a primary-source URL or a back-reference to a disclosed deal in the named-deal tables. Per-cell HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW / GAP confidence labeled at the section level.